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But last week Miklofsky had to close his fourth and newest Alan鈥檚 Shoes 蜜柚直播 location at the 蜜柚直播 Spectrum shopping center on the city鈥檚 south side, after most neighboring stores closed and foot traffic stalled amid the coronavirus outbreak.

鈥淚鈥檓 concerned for the safety of our employees and our customers,鈥� said Miklofsky, who co-founded Alan鈥檚 Shoes about 37 years ago. 鈥淲e hope we won鈥檛 have to stay closed too long.鈥�

After closing a second store and laying off 17 of his 46 employees overall last week, Miklofsky isn鈥檛 sure how long his two remaining stores will remain open but is carefully monitoring things with plans to reopen once the virus danger has passed.

The hardest part, he said, is the uncertainty brought on by the coronavirus pandemic and how it will end for his business.

鈥淭his is certainly an unprecedented issue,鈥� he said. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of people that are hurt by this, and we as a business, we have an obligation to figure out how we can preserve capital so we have enough to ramp back up. Half of our concern is how to reformulate our business and rise from the ashes, so to speak.鈥�

Miklofsky is likely the rule rather than the exception among small businesses.

Besides concerns over health and safety, uncertainty is the biggest concern among the roughly 1,500 members of the 蜜柚直播 Metro Chamber, chamber President and CEO Amber Smith said.

鈥淧eople are scared for themselves and their families because of the health risk,鈥� Smith said. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 also the uncertainty of not knowing what tomorrow holds, what changes in the world are going to be made.鈥�

RECESSION INEVITABLE

The coronavirus pandemic is hitting 蜜柚直播-area businesses hard, business leaders and economists say.

While major events have been canceled and many businesses have closed at least temporarily, others are fighting to stay afloat amid measures to prevent public gatherings, including a statewide ban on eat- and drink-in bars and restaurants.

Some government help is on the way, with small-business disaster loans approved for 蜜柚直播 last week and more help for businesses and consumers coming with a pending $1 trillion federal economic stimulus package.听

But much remains uncertain, and the economic disruption caused by business closures and self-quarantine from the pandemic likely will tip the nation into a recession 鈥� negative economic growth 鈥� in the second quarter, University of 蜜柚直播 economist George Hammond said.

The current thinking is that the recession will last about three quarters, and that the economy will start growing again in early 2021, but that鈥檚 only a forecast, Hammond said.

鈥淭he situation is still evolving every day, so there鈥檚 a lot of uncertainty about how the outbreak is going to progress and therefore how the economic impacts is going to play out,鈥� said Hammond, director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the UA鈥檚 Eller College of Management.

Hammond said he鈥檚 still crunching numbers for an interim forecast update, but one research model he uses predicts that U.S. economic growth as measured by real gross domestic product will fall 5.4% in the second quarter with losses narrowing through the end of 2020 before growth turns positive next year.

Among the hardest-hit sectors so far is the leisure and hospitality sector, including travel and tourism businesses like airlines and hotels as well as arts and entertainment and restaurants and bars, Hammond said.

Among the closures last week was Roadhouse Cinemas, which reported 109 layoffs to the state. Two tribal casino operations, the Pascua Yaqui Tribe鈥檚 Casino del Sol and Casino of the Sun, and the Tohono O鈥檕dham Nation鈥檚 Desert Diamond casinos, also have temporarily closed though they plan to keep paying furloughed workers.

Retailers already are feeling the effects of the virus, with many closing stores at least temporarily, and manufacturers may see workplace issues, falling demand and supply-chain problems as the virus grips the world.

Even after the virus is at bay, historic declines in the stock market will stifle consumer spending 鈥� a linchpin of the economy 鈥� for a while, Hammond said.

鈥淲hen stock prices fall then that means households鈥� net worth takes a big hit, and when people feel poorer that makes them less optimistic about the future and they tend to spend less,鈥� he said.

As the virus has spread elsewhere, demand for goods for services have plummeted, and disrupted global supply chains will make it more difficult for manufacturers to keep their supply chains running, Hammond said.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not just manufacturers, it鈥檚 retailers who may struggle to get goods that they were able to get a couple of months ago,鈥� he said. 鈥淵ou put all those together and you get a big shock to the national economy. 蜜柚直播 is going to feel that.鈥�

Hammond said how long the economic disruption lasts largely depends on how fast federal, state and local authorities can get a handle on the coronavirus outbreak.

鈥淩ight now one of the best things the government can do to control the economic impacts is to get a handle on the outbreak, and it鈥檚 something that individuals can contribute to as well by working at home, washing our hands, staying home when we are sick and just generally staying away from people for the time being,鈥� he said.

RECORD TRAVEL YEAR HALTED

Southern 蜜柚直播鈥檚 travel and tourism industry already is hurting, with cancellations of virtually all upcoming major events, concerts, meetings and closures of major attractions such as the 蜜柚直播-Sonora Desert Museum.

Though most 蜜柚直播-area hotels remain open 鈥� with exceptions including the 蜜柚直播 Inn, which closed last week 鈥� occupancy is way down in what should be the peak visitor season.

蜜柚直播鈥檚 tourism industry had been hitting on all cylinders up until recently, with hotel room revenue in January and February of $99.5 million, up nearly 3% from the same period in 2019.

鈥淓very indication was that it was going to be a record year for travel and tourism,鈥� said Brent DeRaad, CEO of Visit 蜜柚直播. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think anyone in the U.S. or the travel and tourism industry had foreseen the COVID-19 precautions and travel impacts would hit this hard and this quickly.鈥�

The 蜜柚直播 Gem, Mineral and Fossil Showcase, 蜜柚直播鈥檚 biggest draw to outside visitors with an economic impact of about $120 million, went off mostly as planned in February, though there was some drop-off of international visitors in later weeks as the coronavirus began to restrict international travel, DeRaad said.

Likewise, the 蜜柚直播 Rodeo and Major League Soccer preseason training were held in mid-February while the 蜜柚直播 Invitational Games, a college baseball and softball training event that brings thousands of players and staff to 蜜柚直播, was able to get through about half of its month-long March schedule, DeRaad said.

The 蜜柚直播 Festival of Books was canceled in early March, though that remains mostly a local event.

The evolving pandemic also prompted the cancellations of many smaller events such as industry meetings and conferences, DeRaad said.

Visit 蜜柚直播鈥檚 database tracked some 43,000 nightly room rentals in March, with 70% to 80% in jeopardy because of the pandemic, but DeRaad said he believes most will be rescheduled for later in the year.

鈥淲e鈥檙e seeing a great number of events and meetings rescheduled into the fall,鈥� DeRaad said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e hopeful as long as the coronavirus impacts dissipate in the next three months, and perhaps that鈥檚 being optimistic, then we will see a really strong fall for metro 蜜柚直播.鈥�

At least one smaller local hotel is trying to stay open while it can.

The Hotel McCoy, a 90-room boutique hotel that opened in 2018 on West Silverlake Road just west of Interstate 10, has instituted special room deep-cleaning procedures and drive-thru room check-in for prepaid reservations, so guests don鈥檛 have to interact with a human, general manager Nicole Dahl said.

鈥淵ou don鈥檛 really have to make contact with anyone when you stay with us,鈥� Dahl said, adding that staff simply photograph guests鈥� IDs as they go through drive-thru check-in.

After staying full during the gem showcase in February, the midcentury modern throwback hotel had 24 guests as of last week, she said. Before the virus hit, the hotel was 90% sold out for 2020.

Guests are placed in rooms with no neighbors. The rooms are disinfected on a rotating basis in a process that includes heating up the rooms to more than 90 degrees.

The Hotel McCoy鈥檚 bar is closed but is still offering takeout, and though the hotel has had cancellations totaling 鈥渟ix figures,鈥� it will remain open with 22 employees for now, she said.

鈥淎ny hospitality business that is staying open is doing so at a loss but hoping that loss isn鈥檛 too super detrimental,鈥� Dahl said. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 important to stay open for employees.鈥澨�

The hotel is offering a 25% discount on prepaid reservations for the rest of 2020, which are refundable, she said.

She said the key is to remain positive and be a good community member.

The Hotel McCoy last week posted an offer online to go grocery shopping for any neighbor who was sick or too scared to go out. The hotel staff shopped for about a dozen neighbors, Dahl said, including an 80-year-old woman who lives 7 miles away.

鈥淩ight now what we鈥檙e feeling is we have zero control over our finances and our employees鈥� future, but the one thing we can control is how we react,鈥� Dahl said. 鈥淪o if we react with kindness and optimism, then hopefully that will radiate out and people will feel that and when they are able to show kindness back, they will.鈥�

蜜柚直播-based HSL Properties has so far kept its 11 local hotel properties open but has had to reduce workers鈥� hours and lay off some employees amid low occupancy, HSL President Omar Mireles said.

HSL, whose properties include the Hilton El Conquistador Resort, has stopped turning down occupied rooms daily to limit guests鈥� exposure, and has increased cleaning regimens between guests and boosted disinfection of common areas, Mireles said.

While 9/11 was tough on the hotel industry, the uncertainty of the virus outbreak has probably created more anxiety among consumers, he said.

鈥淭his is the enemy you can鈥檛 see and the fear factor of not knowing who鈥檚 infected and not knowing how many people can get hurt,鈥� Mireles said. 鈥淚t seems like we are at the very beginning of the process and it changes every day.鈥�

Major chains like Hilton and Marriott have said they are protecting staff and guests by boosting staff hygiene training, stepping up room cleanings and in some cases relaxing cancellation and refund rules.

Meanwhile, 蜜柚直播-area bars and restaurants are offering takeout and in some cases delivery service after the city of 蜜柚直播, Pima County and the state banned dine-in service.

Smith said the Metro Chamber supported the bar and restaurant closures as a compromise position to try to protect the industry.

鈥淭he response has been positive from those who say they鈥檒l do it,鈥� she said of the takeout and delivery options.

MANUFACTURING

Even businesses that don鈥檛 deal directly with the public, such as manufacturers, have had to take special precautions because of COVID-19.

Howard Stewart, president of AGM Container Controls, said the company鈥檚 business 鈥� making environmental controls for containers that hold things like missiles and engines, as well as elevator lifts 鈥� is humming despite the outbreak.

AGM鈥檚 customers include major defense contractors like Raytheon Missile Systems, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin, as well as the Defense Department itself.

鈥淭he orders have continued to come in like normal, which is kind of a surprise to me,鈥� he said.

But the company has had to adjust its operations, assuring that all of its roughly 150 workers are separated by six feet and staggering shifts so people aren鈥檛 crowded into the company鈥檚 small break room at lunch and during breaks.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 want any of my employees to get (the coronavirus) and I鈥檓 going to do everything I can to prevent that,鈥� said Stewart, adding that he recently backed up a supervisor who sent home a worker who was sneezing and coughing.

鈥淚 think a lot of my role is to keep people calm,鈥� said Stewart, who penned a lengthy message stressing safety to his employees last week.

Officials at Raytheon Missile Systems, the 蜜柚直播 region鈥檚 biggest employer, said in a prepared statement that the company is taking steps to safeguard its 13,000-person local workforce.

鈥淲e are actively monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic and have taken a variety of immediate steps to ensure the safety and well-being of our employees,鈥� the company said. 鈥淭his includes domestic and international travel restrictions, restrictions on face-to-face meetings, and new work-from-home and social-distancing protocols in all our facilities.鈥�

HELP ON THE WAY?

The Metro Chamber鈥檚 Smith said her organization is working to get help to local small businesses with a new coronavirus web page.

The Chamber also is in touch with several lenders offering听 bridge loans 鈥� some with no interest for 90 days 鈥� and is posting regular updates on such programs on its website.听

Government help is also on the way for small businesses and consumers.

Last week, Congress approved and President Trump signed into law a program to provide loans to small businesses affected by the coronavirus through the U.S. Small Business Administration.

The SBA approved an Economic Injury Disaster Loan declaration for 蜜柚直播 small businesses that may be eligible for up to $2 million through the program.

The loans may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable and other bills that can鈥檛 be paid because of COVID-19鈥檚 impact. The interest rate is 3.75%听 for small businesses without credit available elsewhere. The interest rate for nonprofits is 2.75%.

It can take about two to three weeks for the SBA to make a decision once a loan application is submitted. Funds can be disbursed within five days of receiving the loan-closing documents, SBA spokeswoman Carol Chastang said.

Miklofsky of Alan鈥檚 Shoes said he鈥檚 already looked at getting an SBA disaster loan 鈥� but like all SBA loans, the program requires a lot of paperwork to prove losses related to the coronoavirus.

鈥淲e certainly plan to apply for those, but there鈥檚 no guarantee,鈥� he said.

Still pending in Congress is an economic stimulus package that will likely be worth about $1 trillion or more, including payments of $1,000 or more to eligible American adults.

That package also includes $300 billion to be used to help businesses keep people on payroll and offers loan forgiveness for those that do after the crisis ends.

Hammond, the UA economist, said the government must get a handle on the virus outbreak to ensure that monetary policy, like lowering interest rates, or fiscal stimulus has a chance to work.

鈥淭he government is the big hitter here, especially the federal government needs to step in to help businesses bridge this temporary issue,鈥� he said.

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鈥淲e鈥檙e seeing a great number of events and meetings rescheduled into the fall. We鈥檙e hopeful as long as the coronavirus impacts dissipate in the next three months, and
perhaps that鈥檚 being optimistic, then we will see a really strong fall for metro 蜜柚直播.鈥� Brent DeRaad CEO of Visit 蜜柚直播