PHOENIX — That bumper crop of flowers and grasses from all that rain are going to turn from beautiful to deadly this coming wildfire season.
“The perception is it’s been really wet and the risk isn’t as high,†said Gov. Katie Hobbs during the state’s annual briefing about conditions in the state’s grasslands and forests.
“But all of that green is going to become fuel,†she said. “We need folks to be extra aware and extra cautious.â€
And while much of the focus this year is in Southern ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, it would be wrong to believe that other areas of the state are not at risk, said State Forester Thomas Torres. “Think the areas around Prescott, Payson, that part of the world,†Torres said.
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It starts with what the agency believes will be a “potential for large-scale incidents†in the southern portion of the state and Southeastern ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ as temperatures rise and the abundance of fine fuel and grasses dries up.
In Central ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, fire activity is expected to pick up by the end of April to early May “due to fuel loading, including overgrowth of grasses and brush.†Northern ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, the beneficiary of copious snowmelt and denser fuel types should have a more delayed start to fire season. But the agency still believes that fire conditions could exist as early as late May.
At the same time, John Truett, the state fire manager, said Monday that there are still vacancies in his agency despite promises last year to increase funding. And that complicates efforts to fight blazes as they occur.
“We’ve heard the message,†responded Hobbs, who took over in January as governor. And she said she is currently in budget talks with the Legislature. But there was no specific commitment for more funds.
The problem goes beyond state employees. Truett said his agency relies heavily on local firefighters.
“They’re really short staffed,†he said.
That was backed by Scott Freitag, chief of the Central ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Fire and Medical Authority.
Last year, he said, his department had the resources to respond to just half of the requests by the state for aid in fighting wildland and brush fires. And that, Freitag said, was in a year with relatively few major fires.
The funding situation hasn’t changed, he said. Yet at the same time, Freitag said, the Legislature is considering measures that would further restrict the ability of these districts to raise the money they need in property taxes.
“If we’re not funded, we can’t respond,†he said.
That lack of ability to get local help, said Torres, has a ripple effect.
“If the in-state resources can’t respond, then they try to bring resources in from other states to respond,†he said. And that results in a lag in getting staff and equipment on the ground.
Consider, Torres said, the Telegraph Fire near Superior that eventually burned more than 180,000 acres before being fully contained a month later.
The Telegraph Fire quickly grew to 7,000 acres and threatened Superior, Ariz. Video by Rick Wiley / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ 2021
“So they called for resources from out of state,†he said, delaying the ability to effectively fight the fire in its early days.
What goes along with all that, Torres said, is that most fires are caused by humans. And that creates its own hazards.
“People want to be in the woods,†he said. “Especially when its very hot down here in the Valley, people want to be in the forested parts of the state.â€
At the same time, Torres said, fire is “natural in the state.†But the state may not be prepared for that.
“The locations of our buildings and our infrastructure, that is typically not natural,†he said. “And so we have development and people living and recreating in places where fire is natural.â€
And that, Torres said, creates “multiple challenges.â€
There are other issues.
One, which is transitory, is the monsoon.
Truett said the National Weather Service has told him that the seasonal rains will be anywhere from normal to below normal. Add to that the possibility that the monsoons — and the moisture they bring to help end the fire season — may not come until late July.
And then there’s the longer-term trend of climate change.
“It’s certainly exacerbating the drought,†Hobbs said.
“We all know that,†she continued. “And I think science tells us that humans do have a role in climate change.â€
That is in sharp contrast with her predecessor, Doug Ducey, who during his first year in office in 2015, said he believes climate change is real. “What I am skeptical about is what human activity has to do with it,†Ducey said at the time.
But Hobbs, while professing her belief in the link between human activity and the climate, sidestepped questions of whether she’s willing to use her position to actually push for changes that would decrease greenhouse gas emissions.
“We’re prepared to do a lot,†she said. “But I’m not prepared to discuss it at this time.â€
There are things the state could do.
California, for example, has imposed its own limits on vehicle emissions that are tougher than those required by federal laws. And the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has said transportation is the largest source of greenhouse gases, exceeding electricity generation and industrial sources.
Her predecessor made it very clear during his eight years in office he was not interested in pursuing such changes.
Ducey, in a 2019 interview with Capitol Media Services, rejected the idea that ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ should adopt California-style limits on vehicles emissions that are tougher than those required by federal laws.
“I think you can have a growing economy and an improving environment,†Ducey said at the time. “That’s what we’re having in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ versus what California’s having, which is a mass exodus.â€
Photos: The Bighorn Fire burn scar in the Santa Catalina Mountains
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

Gregg Sasek, dispersed recreation manager for the Coronado National Forest Santa Catalina Ranger District, demonstrates how ground along the Palisade Trail has been burnt out making it easy for hikers to sink a leg into the soil, on Aug. 12, 2020. Various dangers are still being accessed throughout the Coronado National Forest as a result of the Bighorn Fire. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

Santa Catalina District Ranger CJ Woodard looks at the burn scar caused by the Bighorn Fire along the Palisade Trail in the Santa Catalina Ranger District of the Coronado National Forest, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

A scorched tree along the Palisade Trail in the Santa Catalina Ranger District of the Coronado National Forest, on Aug. 12, 2020. Dangers including burnt vegetation, unstable trees and loose soil as a result of the Bighorn Fire are being accessed by the Forest Service before trails in the area are opened to the public. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

A tree uprooted by burnt roots and soil as a result of the Bighorn Fire along the Palisade Trail in the Santa Catalina Ranger District of the Coronado National Forest, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

Gregg Sasek, dispersed recreation manager with the Coronado National Forest Santa Catalina Ranger District, leads media and other Forest Service workers along the Palisade Trail to showcase various types of damage done to wilderness area as a result of the Bighorn Fire, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

A scorched tree along the Palisade Trail in the Santa Catalina Ranger District of the Coronado National Forest, on Aug. 12, 2020. Dangers including burnt vegetation, unstable trees and loose soil as a result of the Bighorn Fire are being accessed by the Forest Service before trails in the area are opened to the public. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

Ponderosa Pines charred by the Bighorn Fire stand along the Palisade Trail in the Santa Catalina Ranger District of the Coronado National Forest, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

A tree uprooted and burnt as a result of the Bighorn Fire along the Palisade Trail in the Santa Catalina Ranger District of the Coronado National Forest, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

Gregg Sasek, dispersed recreation manager with the Coronado National Forest Santa Catalina Ranger District, carries a combi-tool (a woodland fire tool which combines a shovel and pick) as he leads media and other Forest Service personnel along the Palisade Trail to showcase various types of damage done to wilderness area as a result of the Bighorn Fire, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

Forest Service personnel and media walk through a burn scar caused by the Bighorn Fire along the Palisade Trail in the Santa Catalina Ranger District of the Coronado National Forest, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

Forest Service personnel and media walk through a burn scar caused by the Bighorn Fire along the Palisade Trail in the Santa Catalina Ranger District of the Coronado National Forest, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

Gregg Sasek, dispersed recreation manager with the Coronado National Forest Santa Catalina Ranger District, leads media and other Forest Service workers along the Palisade Trail to showcase various types of damage done to wilderness area as a result of the Bighorn Fire, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

A fern sprouts from the soil in a burnt out area along the Palisade Trail in the Santa Catalina Ranger District of the Coronado National Forest, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

Gregg Sasek, dispersed recreation manager with the Coronado National Forest Santa Catalina Ranger District, checks tree tops for signs of burn while leading media and other Forest Service workers along the Palisade Trail to showcase various types of damage done to wilderness area as a result of the Bighorn Fire, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

A burn scar along the Palisade Trail in the Santa Catalina Ranger District of the Coronado National Forest, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

A tree base scorched by the Bighorn Fire along the Palisade Trail in the Santa Catalina Ranger District of the Coronado National Forest, on Aug. 12, 2020. The weakening of the base makes it easier for trees to fall and are a serious danger to hikers. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

Gregg Sasek, dispersed recreation manager with the Coronado National Forest Santa Catalina Ranger District, walks by a "leaner" (an uprooted tree hung up on another tree or object) as he leads media and other Forest Service workers along the Palisade Trail to showcase various types of damage done to wilderness area as a result of the Bighorn Fire, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

A burn scar from the Bighorn Fire along a hilltop near the Palisade Trail in the Santa Catalina Ranger District of the Coronado National Forest, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire Burn Scar, hiking trails

Scorched pine needles along the Palisade Trail in the Santa Catalina district of the Coronado National Forest, on Aug. 12, 2020. Pool photo by Josh Galemore / ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥
Bighorn Fire

Bighorn Fire scar north of Summerhaven, Ariz, right, on July 15, 2020. The Mt. Lemmon Fire station is top center in the photo.
Bighorn Fire

Bighorn Fire in the Santa Catalina Mountains below Summerhaven, Ariz, right, on July 15, 2020.
Bighorn Fire

Bighorn Fire scar in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Summerhaven (lower right) on July 15, 2020.
Bighorn Fire

Bighorn Fire scar in the Santa Catalina Mountains below the town of Summerhaven on July 15, 2020.
Bighorn Fire

The Mt. Lemmon Control Road cuts through the Bighorn Fire scar on the north side of the Santa Catalina Mountains near Oracle, Ariz., on July 15, 2020.
Bighorn Fire

Bighorn Fire scar below Mt. Lemmon in the Santa Catalina Mountains on July 15, 2020.
Bighorn Fire

Bighorn Fire scar area: Cañada del Oro basin looking south at Samaniego Ridge in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ on July 1, 2020. The summit of Mt Lemmon is at left.
Bighorn Fire

The Bighorn Fire scar area shown looking from East Ski Run toward Oracle Ridge, left, and Sanmaniego Ridge, right, in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥.
Bighorn Fire

Bighorn Fire scar area: South face of Mt Kimball on July 3, 2020, in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥.
Bighorn Fire

Bighorn Fire scar area: Regional Flood Control Staff installing a new real-time ALERT rainfall monitoring site in the burn area in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in July, 2020. These are the backbone of the flash flood warning system.
Bighorn Fire

Charred debris from the Bighorn Fire moves down the Cañada del Oro Wash after a monsoon storm on July 15, 2020.
Bighorn Fire

Charred debris from the Bighorn Fire moves down the Cañada del Oro Wash after a monsoon storm on July 15, 2020.
Howard Fischer is a veteran journalist who has been reporting since 1970 and covering state politics and the Legislature since 1982. Follow him on Twitter at @azcapmedia or email azcapmedia@gmail.com.