Trees along the creek in popular Sabino Canyon northeast of 蜜柚直播 are still showing brilliant 鈥渁utumn鈥 color in January 鈥 but one of the foremost experts on the canyon says there is a troubling side to that unseasonable beauty.
鈥淭here are an unusual number of colorful leaves still clinging to Sabino鈥檚 big trees for this time of year,鈥 said David Lazaroff, a naturalist and author of 鈥淪abino Canyon: The Life of a Southwestern Oasis.鈥 鈥淓qually striking is the number of trees whose leaves are just beginning to change color.
鈥淭he effect of all this is pleasant to the eye but troubling to the soul,鈥 Lazaroff said. 鈥淭hese are just the most visible changes to the natural scheme of things in Sabino Canyon resulting from a changing climate. More powerful floods and longer periods when the creek is dry are other climate-related effects.鈥
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CLIMATE CHANGE FACTOR
Scientists at the University of 蜜柚直播 note that a global warming trend is indisputable. But they emphasize that it鈥檚 not possible to say with certainty that specific phenomena 鈥 such as the very late autumn color in Sabino Canyon 鈥 are a result of climate change.
鈥淭here鈥檚 an incredibly clear warming trend where we鈥檝e had these record warm years,鈥 said David Breshears, a professor of natural resources at the university. 鈥淭hese types of responses 鈥 lower stream flow and changing phenology of plants (seasonal life-cycle events) 鈥 are not surprising.
鈥淏ut it鈥檚 difficult to say that a specific change at a specific time is related鈥 to climate change, Breshears said.
Others, including experts at the USA National Phenology Network in 蜜柚直播, said sparse records spanning a relatively short period of time are insufficient to attribute something such as a late leaf drop to a particular cause.
BONE-DRY CREEK
Prolonged drought conditions have left Sabino Creek bone dry for an unusually long period of time.
鈥淲e haven鈥檛 had any flow in Sabino creek since September 14,鈥 said Chris Magirl, a research hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey.
That means the waterway, a favorite destination for many canyon visitors, has been without flowing water for 113 days as of Friday, Jan. 5.
Magirl said stream-flow records indicate that this is the fifth-longest no-flow period on Sabino Creek since measurements began in 1932, with the other four occurring in recent decades. The longest period of continuous dry days was 165, ending in March of 2006.
Magirl said it will take about an inch or more of rainfall, or snowmelt from the nearby Catalina Mountains, to get the creek flowing again.
The long-term outlook for the creek and vegetation in the canyon remains uncertain.
鈥淣o one can predict everything that鈥檚 coming,鈥 Lazaroff said.
The Sabino Canyon visitor center is at 5700 N. Sabino Canyon Road. Admission is $5 per vehicle.
