蜜柚直播

When the monsoon misses you, it鈥檚 hard not to take it personally. Even climate scientists sometimes feel the sting of rejection.

鈥淭he monsoon can be a very emotional thing, and I鈥檓 susceptible to that emotion, too,鈥� said Mike Crimmins, a researcher and associate professor with the University of 蜜柚直播鈥檚 Department of Soil, Water and Environmental Science. 鈥淵ou just feel cheated every summer, because it鈥檚 not the summer you were hoping for.鈥�

But that annual disappointment is probably just your memory playing tricks on you. According to preliminary results from a study now underway by Crimmins and his colleagues, there are no cursed locations in the 蜜柚直播 area where summer rains consistently refuse to fall.

鈥淓veryone thinks they have a doughnut hole in their part of the city,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 see a systematic doughnut hole.鈥�

What they see instead is a lot of variability, with some parts of town getting soaked one year and left largely dry the next. Basically, 蜜柚直播 is a doughnut with a hole that moves around at random.

鈥淚t does show up during the monsoon season, but it鈥檚 not always in the same place,鈥� Crimmins said. 鈥淎nd it isn鈥檛 there every monsoon season.鈥�

鈥淟uck is Probability taken personally鈥�

Meteorologist Carl Cerniglia has a highly technical term for that: 鈥渄umb luck.鈥�

鈥淲ith any given event, you might see the west side picked on more or the east side picked on more,鈥� said Cerniglia, who is with the National Weather Service in 蜜柚直播. 鈥淧roximity to terrain is the biggest influence.鈥�

Since summer thunderstorms tend to form over mountains, people living closest to the Rincons and the Catalinas can generally expect 鈥渕ore precipitation in the long term,鈥� he said. They also get more 鈥渟now events鈥� in winter, but that鈥檚 more a function of elevation.

When it comes to monsoons, Cerniglia said, 鈥淭here鈥檚 a basic pattern at play, and there鈥檚 a bit of dumb luck.鈥�

And as famous magician and skeptic Penn Jillette is fond of saying: 鈥淟uck is probability taken personally.鈥�

Which brings us back to the doughnut-hole question.

As part of his work at the university, Crimmins serves as an investigator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration鈥檚 Climate Assessment for the Southwest program, a 蜜柚直播-based regional collaboration between the UA and New Mexico State University.

He said he and his CLIMAS colleagues have talked about a study like this for several years, but they 鈥渢urned up the gas鈥� on the idea recently.

They鈥檙e now compiling and analyzing all of the available data from the last 20 years or so, from official weather service totals and gauge readings from the Pima County Regional Flood Control District to backyard rain observations from several volunteer networks, including one called that Crimmins helped launch in 2005.

He said the website might receive more than 300 rain reports during a particularly strong storm, but it relies on a core group of 15-20 amateur observers who submit their readings religiously every day, even when they have nothing to report but zeros. That information can be just as valuable, Crimmins said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 one thing to know when it rains, but it鈥檚 just as important to have a record of when it doesn鈥檛 rain.鈥�

bragging rights

The crew at CLIMAS also collects weather readings at their homes as kind of a 鈥渟pectator sport,鈥� Crimmins said. If they鈥檙e not bragging about their brimming rain gauges, they鈥檙e 鈥渞age observing,鈥� as a storm skips them and dumps on someone else鈥檚 part of town.

So far this summer, Crimmins is getting creamed.

As of last week, this year鈥檚 monsoon had only produced about three-quarters of an inch of rain at his east-side home near Broadway and Camino Seco.

Meanwhile, backyard observers just 5 miles to the northwest of him have already soaked up a full 4 inches and counting.

鈥淎 part of town already has half of their annual rainfall, and it looks like the rest of us are going to struggle to catch up,鈥� Crimmins said.

Of course, not all neighborhoods are created equal. 蜜柚直播 is dotted with 鈥渕icroclimates鈥� 鈥� subtle, local differences in temperature and humidity, based on terrain and other factors.

For example, the weather service鈥檚 Cerniglia said humidity levels tend to be higher in the area along the Santa Cruz River where 蜜柚直播鈥檚 treated effluent is released.

And there鈥檚 a slightly elevated stretch of Orange Grove Road that stays warmer at night and doesn鈥檛 dip below freezing as much in winter, which is why farmers used to grow citrus there, he said.

If it鈥檚 cold you鈥檙e looking for, Cerniglia said, Catalina State Park and Tanque Verde High School regularly see some of the lowest temperatures in the 蜜柚直播 area, as cool air pours down from the Catalinas.

鈥淐old air is much like water. It follows the path of least resistance and seeks the lowest point,鈥� he said. 鈥淪omething to think about if you鈥檙e planning to move somewhere and you want to save a little money on air conditioning.鈥�

Microclimates, major disappointments

Some microclimates are simply the result of land use. That鈥檚 why, on a typical sunny day, the temperature will be cooler in the grass at Randolph Golf Course than it is just across Broadway in the parking lot of El Con Mall.

Put enough parking lots, roads and buildings together in one place like that, and you get what鈥檚 known as the urban heat-island effect, which is driving up temperatures 鈥� particularly overnight lows 鈥� in 蜜柚直播, Phoenix, Las Vegas and other developing Southwestern cities.

Even in undisturbed desert, Crimmins said, changes in vegetation and soil color can alter the temperature and produce some microclimatic effects.

He said not much research has been done on the microclimates of 蜜柚直播, in part because studying them requires 鈥渄ense networks of instrumentation.鈥� Besides, there鈥檚 little evidence to suggest that such small, local variations have any measurable impact on the regional and global forces that drive Southern 蜜柚直播鈥檚 summer thunderstorm activity, he said.

In other words, microclimates are not to blame for the lousy monsoon we鈥檝e seen so far this year.

But take heart, 蜜柚直播: Crimmins insists the stormy weather will return eventually, no matter what part of town you live in. 鈥淥n average, over time, it does even out,鈥� he said.

Before long, he expects to have a study to back him up on that. Crimmins said the CLIMAS team hopes to finish its analysis by next summer, just in time for monsoon season.