Few people noticed when a dramatic shift happened in 蜜柚直播 after the 2008 economic crash.
蜜柚直播鈥檚 Hispanic women, especially, started having a lot fewer kids.
Between 2008 and 2012, Latinas in the state went from having three children per woman on average, to two, a 33 percent drop in just four years. Overall, of any state between the first and second decades of the century.
鈥淭his is unprecedented,鈥 蜜柚直播鈥檚 state demographer, .
It鈥檚 part of . Fertility rates (the number of children per woman) have dropped well below the level needed to replace the existing population.
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That may seem like a good thing 鈥 it can lessen our human impact on the overburdened Earth. But it can have big negative implications and overall well-being, as fewer young people are available to work and must support more older ones.
In 蜜柚直播, 鈥淲e are now at 1.7, which is quite a bit below the replacement level, which is 2.1,鈥 Chang said. 鈥淚 think we are the highest among developed countries. In South Korea, this number is 0.7.鈥
In China last year, . And trends suggest a steep and dangerous drop that could . Even with family-size restrictions lifted in China, adults are choosing not to have more.
Whether to have kids is such a deeply personal decision that it鈥檚 often relegated to private conversations, but it鈥檚 emerging again as a real-world public policy issue. Abortion bans, climate collapse, economic uncertainty and demographic cliffs all make these private choices a public concern.
In 蜜柚直播, the 1864 abortion ban 鈥 which has not taken effect after the recent Supreme Court decision confirming it as the law 鈥 is likely having an impact on women鈥檚 comfort with getting pregnant. Medical decisions could be taken out of their doctors鈥 hands.
鈥淚 have two children, but I might want more,鈥 Eloisa Lopez, who is executive director of Pro Choice 蜜柚直播, told me. 鈥淚 would be terrified to be pregnant in a state with a ban.鈥
A question of morality
American families have been shrinking since long before Roe v. Wade was decided in 1973. Economic growth and the availability of birth control convinced adults to have fewer kids.
The shrinking of the American family was a movement Texas A & M University historian describes as 鈥渢otally informal, largely invisible, very democratized.鈥
鈥淵ou鈥檇 struggle to find a more 鈥榮ocial鈥 social movement,鈥 MacNamara, the author of the book , said in an email. 鈥淚t was just a bunch of anonymous people who gradually rethought the place of kids in a good life, across millions of little kitchen-table conversations.鈥
Since then, a segment of American culture has extended the logic of having fewer kids further and decided to have none at all. Greg Scott, vice president of the conservative Center for 蜜柚直播 Policy, attributed the change to a 鈥渃ultural mindset that children are a net detriment to a flourishing life.鈥
It also became a question of ethics, especially after was published in 1968. The book predicted an era of mass human starvation due to humans鈥 overuse of resources. . The and other changes drove down global hunger in the period when Ehrlich predicted mass starvation.
But the impact of concerns about overpopulation on our planet lingered and have been strengthened as the climate turns hotter. When I questioned my thousands of friends on Facebook to see if anyone I know has decided not to have children due to environmental concerns, , several said yes.
One was 蜜柚直播an Stacey Auch, who told me in a later conversation that she decided about 15 years ago that she does not want to have children. She doesn鈥檛 want to add another person to the planet鈥檚 load, Auch said, and she also worries about what life will be like for herself, let alone a new child, as the climate changes.
鈥淚n addition to my concern for a child or myself, I really like my planet,鈥 Auch said. 鈥淲e continue to tear down forests and harm wildlife. Those are things that I hold dear.鈥
The love of family
I do too, and yet I find myself wishing increasingly that more people were having children. Not people who don鈥檛 want children 鈥 they shouldn鈥檛 have them, of course. But people who love children and are on the fence for other reasons.
My wife鈥檚 six siblings have been circulating through our house recently as we care for their aging mother (my mother-in-law) who lives with us. Being part of a big family can be hard, especially when the kids are young and competing for the parents鈥 attention. But when they鈥檙e grown, this ability to band together is unbeatable.
I am one of two children myself, and the father of two, but my growing appreciation for bigger families puts me more in line with conservative trends than with my fellow political liberals. , , is trying to encourage bigger families, at least for people like them.
蜜柚直播 Republican Blake Masters, a Silicon Valley veteran, pushed this idea during his 2022 run for U.S. Senate, and he鈥檚 doing it more aggressively in this year鈥檚 primary run for U.S. House as he attempts to defeat unmarried rival Abraham Hamadeh.
鈥淚鈥檝e got a wonderful wife, I鈥檝e got four beautiful boys. That鈥檚 called skin in the game,鈥 . 鈥淲hat we don鈥檛 need is someone with no wife and kids, no skin in the game.鈥
Tyler Bowyer, 蜜柚直播鈥檚 indicted, departing member of the Republican National Committee, in April 2023: 鈥淗OMESTEAD AND HAVE MORE CHILDREN.鈥
It鈥檚 not right to judge people who don鈥檛 have children, as Masters has. People鈥檚 choices and circumstances are their own.
But I鈥檓 worried about those choosing not to have children out of fear of climate change. of the Wall Street Journal, from an older man in Minnesota, summarized why I fear they could regret their choices.
鈥淚 was a college student when I read Mr. Ehrlich鈥檚 鈥楾he Population Bomb,鈥欌 the letter reads. 鈥淚 took it to heart and now have no grandchildren, but 50 years later the population has increased to eight billion without dire consequences. I was gullible and stupid.鈥
Making life easier for parents
Countries facing low birthrates have struggled to change them. Viktor Orban鈥檚 Hungary, beloved by conservatives, has put in place P. Still, it has barely bent the fertility rate upward and has not reached replacement levels.
For now, 蜜柚直播 doesn鈥檛 have to worry much about achieving a replacement birth rate. We have plenty of migration that can make up for a lack of young people, and we need to worry about whether we have enough water anyway.
Still, we should worry about the things that cause people who might want children not to have them. The accessibility of prenatal medical care, quality jobs and affordable housing are key factors that people take into account when considering having children, Lopez said.
Any rebound in births would have to be organic, as was the reduction in family sizes, MacNamara said.
鈥淚 tend to think that the best pronatal policies are not framed in pronatal terms,鈥 he said via email. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e just policies that make life easier for families and parents.鈥
Across the political spectrum, we might be able to agree on that.
Tim Steller is an opinion columnist. A 25-year veteran of reporting and editing, he digs into issues and stories that matter in the 蜜柚直播 area, reports the results and his conclusions. Contact him at tsteller@tucson.com or 520-807-7789. On Twitter: @timothysteller