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ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ tends to be a place where turning points don’t actually turn. Events that we think might transform the place, don’t.

IBM arrived in the late 1970s but then largely pulled out in 1988; Rio Nuevo’s rainbow bridge and tortoise-shell arena looked great but never materialized; the arrival of a big Caterpillar headquarters helped but didn’t transform the town.

Instead, the Old Pueblo persists from year to year in some slight variation of its former self: Delightful, dirty, lively, dangerous, full of unrealized potential and barely hanging on to what it’s got.

I’ve often viewed it as a “one step forward, one step back� city, with each element of progress usually offset by something dismaying.

I’m hoping that 2025 turns out to be different. A series of elections and other events are laid out in front of us that could — could — add up to a turning point in local history, depending on how they turn out. And could take us either way, up or down.

Prop. 414

The first is the proposal to raise the city’s sales tax by a half-cent per dollar, which will go to voters in March. Most of the estimated $80 million per year raised by the 10-year sales tax would go to public safety needs.

There’s no question ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ needs to upgrade its public safety. The number of traffic deaths is alarming. The number of murders went up last year over 2023, rising from 58 to 65. Street takeovers and drug-users’ congregations are a regular menace.

But what I think many ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ans think of when they think of public safety is how police never show up when they call. Often, locals don’t bother calling when relatively minor incidents, like car break-ins or thefts of outdoor belongings, occur. If Prop. 414 could fix this; it might merit passage.

I’m not convinced yet. And I’m not sure if the message sent by rejecting the proposition isn’t better.

ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ans have been receptive to tax increases, bond issues and similar elections for years now, including one that is making progress on repairing our streets. But this grab-bag proposal, dubbed the Safe & Vibrant City proposition seemingly came out of nowhere.

The mayor and council described it as making up for a temporary shortfall in state-shared revenue, but it would more than make up for that over the 10-year life of the tax.

Maybe the mayor and council need to hear the message that city residents are not endlessly indulgent and want the city’s key problems — crime, road conditions, homelessness — targeted and dealt with, leaving the rest aside if necessary.

I could lose my cherished fare-free buses and free access to year-round public swimming pools, but the trade-off might be worth it.

Council elections

Three of the six ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ City Council seats are up for election, and two will definitely turn over, from longstanding seat-holders to new ones.

In Ward 5, Council Member Richard Fimbres said he will not be running for re-election. He told me Friday health problems and his age, 72, made him want to retire from duty. Fimbres has been attending meetings remotely for years now, appearing on video from his office, his comments often hard to understand.

The accomplishment he’s most proud of, Fimbres said, was keeping open the Cherrybell Stravenue post office. Now, he’s not sure who he’ll support as a replacement.

His departure opens up the seat that has been occupied by an old-fashioned moderate Democrat for 15 years. The two candidates who have filed so far are both unsuccessful former candidates: Democrats Richard Hernandez and Jesse Lugo.

It’s possible a more progressive, Grijalva-aligned candidate will appear in the race and tilt the council even further leftward. It’s also possible a wildcard will show up. I’m hoping for a freethinker, whoever it is.

The Ward 6 seat will also have a new occupant. Karin Uhlich, who previously was a longtime council member in Ward 3, is a temporary replacement for the resigned, longtime council member Steve Kozachik.

Uhlich has been largely aligned with Mayor Regina Romero and the progressive majority on the council. It will be interesting to see if someone from a different perspective emerges as a possible candidate.

So far, the candidates are: Theresa Riel, Leighton Rockafellow Jr., Miranda Schubert and Charlie Verdin.

Kevin Dahl, the Ward 3 councilmember, is also up for re-election, but so far, he has no challengers.

What I would like to see is more active representation in Ward 5 and council members in both wards who aren’t in lockstep with the rest of the council. We need more diversity of thought there.

RTA election

The decision on whether to extend a county-wide, half-cent sales tax will happen in November. It will be up to all the county’s voters, a narrow majority of whom live in the city of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥.

And that is the rub. While historically, city voters have been more favorable toward tax increases for transportation and other community needs, this time, they may reject the plan.

That’s because city officials and residents have felt for a long time that they have gotten shafted in the first RTA program, which began in 2006. The city hasn’t received a proportional share of spending, and some city projects have never been completed.

Plus, if we pass both half-cent sales taxes, the sales tax in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ will be 9.2 %, up from the current 8.7%, high for ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ and not a selling point for the city.

On the other hand, if the voters fail to pass the RTA, regional transportation projects will go back to being the job of the individual jurisdictions. Voters in each jurisdiction can pass their own sales tax for big road projects if they want, but that will take time.

Grijalva’s future

Rep. Raul Grijalva returned to Washington D.C. to be sworn into office but hasn’t voted since November and didn’t appear in the group photo taken of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s congressional delegation during their recent meeting.

It’s unclear to me whether Grijalva, who announced a cancer diagnosis in April and won re-election in November, will ever be able to fully serve again. If not, resignation must be on the table, and that would create an important shakeup in local politics.

The question hovering over the seat is whether, if Grijalva resigns, it would be more likely that Romero or Grijalva’s daughter, Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva would win the following election. Either outcome would set off a series of political moves that could change the local political dynamics.

His departure, if it were to happen, would also end a storied local political career and could fracture the area’s dominant political alliance.

Trump impacts

ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ and Pima County voted against President-elect Trump. Officials have also stated they don’t plan on cooperating with his deportation operations.

But that won’t be the end of the discussion. We can expect the Trump administration to use coercion, threatening federal grants and aid, for example, against any jurisdiction that doesn’t cooperate with its initiatives.

Depending on how these conflicts play out, they could sidetrack ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ for months or years. Our leaders will have to play their cards carefully to try to defend our interests as well as our values. It won’t be easy to do both.

Similar choices could also affect the University of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ as the incoming administration comes in with a plan to upend academia.

We will have some inkling of how these issues will play out in the hours and days after Trump’s inauguration on Monday.

ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ could come out of this crucible year improved and showing signs of future progress. I’m hoping for it. I’m afraid, though, we’ll end up muddling forward as usual, alternating steps forward and steps back.