蜜柚直播

Border analysts told the 蜜柚直播 that as president, Trump鈥檚 hawkish rhetoric could end up alienating an important U.S. ally and diminishing chances for real collaboration with Mexico on security issues. But some say it could pressure Mexico鈥檚 leaders to take a more aggressive approach to organized crime.

At the least, Trump鈥檚 threats shouldn鈥檛 be dismissed as bluster, said Tony Payan, executive director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico at Rice University鈥檚 Baker Institute for Public Policy.

鈥淜nowing Trump, having observed both his rhetorical style, and his style of governing between 2017 and 2021, I can tell you that he must be taken seriously,鈥� he said. 鈥淗e said that clearly in his acceptance speech: 鈥楶romises made, promises kept.鈥欌��

Last month, Trump and running mate JD Vance seized on the Oct. 18 shooting death of a 蜜柚直播 veteran in Sonora during their campaign rallies, promising again to eliminate organized crime in Mexico. Nick Quets, 31, was fatally shot after failing to stop at an unauthorized checkpoint, manned by armed men, while driving through a volatile part of northwest Sonora.

鈥淯nder the Trump administration we will achieve compete and total victory over these sadistic monsters,鈥� Trump said at an Oct. 24 rally in Tempe, after addressing Quets鈥� family in the audience. 鈥淲e will reclaim our territory, we will restore the sovereign borders of the United States of America, and we will put the cartels quickly out of business. They鈥檙e gonna be gone.鈥�

Experts say the tough talk indicates Trump is ignoring the complexities of tackling organized crime in Mexico, and the implications of invading the U.S.鈥檚 top trading partner.

Any ground incursion into Mexico would deeply damage relations with a country Trump needs to fulfill his campaign promises on immigration, said Mexico City-based Elisabeth Malkin, deputy program director for Latin America and the Caribbean for the International Crisis Group. The nonprofit provides security analysis and policy advice aimed at conflict prevention.

Classifying cartels as terrorists 鈥渨ould not allow the president to send the Navy SEALs into Mexico without Mexico鈥檚 permission,鈥� she said. If something like that happened, not only would it be illegal, but 鈥淢exico would react very strongly, and the U.S. needs Mexico鈥檚 help in everything that matters to Trump: drugs, and migrants.鈥�

Payan said other aggressive tactics 鈥� even covert drone strikes, as some Republicans have suggested 鈥� could be in play if the U.S. designated cartels as terrorists. Payan鈥檚 areas of research include cross-border flows, border governance issues and the U.S.-Mexico relationship.

Mexico鈥檚 previous president Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador usually avoided direct engagement with cartels under his 鈥渉ugs not bullets鈥� strategy, saying investing in fighting poverty and improving quality of life would end up disempowering organized crime groups. He argued that confronting heavily armed groups would lead to widespread destruction and civilian casualties.

But violence in Mexico surged under L贸pez Obrador鈥檚 administration, with more homicides than in any six-year presidential term, Mexican security data shows.

It remains to be seen whether Mexico鈥檚 new president Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office Oct. 1, will continue the strategy, Payan said.

Trump鈥檚 threats aim 鈥渢o make sure Mexico engages the U.S. and steps up pressure on the cartels,鈥� he said. 鈥淓ither way, the status quo is not sustainable any longer under a Trump administration.鈥�

Sheinbaum may already be breaking with Lopez Obrador鈥檚 approach, to the concern of human-rights watchers. In her first month in office, the military and National Guard have already engaged in multiple bloody confrontations, with bystanders and migrants killed in the process, the Associated Press .

The impact of a U.S. tactical operation in Mexico could end up worsening violence on the ground in places like Sonora, depending on how those operations are carried out, Payan said.

鈥淚f it鈥檚 done carelessly, if it鈥檚 not done with thoughtful operations that are well-executed, it鈥檚 quite possible鈥� more violence would result, he said.

Malkin says if Trump overplays his hand, it could diminish a real chance for binational collaboration on security with Sheinbaum.

In her previous role as Mexico City鈥檚 mayor, Sheinbaum was more open than L贸pez Obrador to collaborating with U.S. intelligence agencies, resulting in some major busts at the city鈥檚 airport, Malkin said.

鈥淭his sort of saber-rattling and bullying maybe isn鈥檛 the best way to try to improve collaboration,鈥� she said.

Over-simplification

Trump is oversimplifying what it would take to tackle organized crime in a country where criminal links are embedded in government institutions, the economy and everyday life, said Adam Isacson, director of defense oversight for the Washington Office on Latin America, a D.C.-based research group that promotes human rights.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a common mistake to think that organized crime is like an anti-government insurgency, that they live separate from the population and all you have to do is bomb the hell out of them, arrest their leaders and they鈥檙e going to disappear,鈥� he said.

The strategy doesn鈥檛 hold up when the targets are 鈥渄eeply embedded in security forces, the judiciary, the governor鈥檚 office, the legal economy,鈥� Isacson said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e not living under triple-canopy jungle; they鈥檙e walking down Main Street.鈥�

Mexico hasn鈥檛 been eager to collaborate with the U.S. on security issues, especially as tensions have risen over recent U.S. actions seen as violations of Mexico鈥檚 sovereignty.

A July operation to capture Sinaloa Cartel co-founder Ismael 鈥淓l Mayo鈥� Zambada and fly him to the U.S. for prosecution 鈥� without Mexico鈥檚 involvement, and with the apparent knowledge of U.S. agencies 鈥� has led to a surge in violence in Sinaloa, and heightened tensions with Mexico鈥檚 government, Isacson said.

With the Zambada operation, the U.S. may have been 鈥渟ending a message to the Mexicans about what they think about their lack of cooperation,鈥� Isacson said. 鈥淏ut by doing it that way, they upended the equilibrium of organized crime so that (the state of) Sinaloa is on fire, and hundreds of people have died.鈥�

Some analysts say Trump is ignoring key factors closer to home that fuel violence in Mexico and drug trafficking, including Americans鈥� demand for fentanyl, the U.S.鈥檚 inability to scan most vehicles coming through its ports of entry 鈥� where the vast majority of fentanyl enters the country, smuggled by U.S. citizens 鈥� and the heavy flow of high-powered U.S. weapons and ammunition smuggled into Mexico.

Between 70% and 90% of firearms in Mexico came from the U.S., according to Mexico鈥檚 Secretariat of Foreign Relations.

Migrant advocates say restrictions on pathways to legally immigrate further enrich organized crime groups: When safe, legitimate means of migrating shut down, the only options left for people fleeing violence or poverty are the smuggling routes that are now under near-total control of organized crime.

Last year hundreds of Mexican residents fled the border town of S谩sabe, Sonora amid an explosion in violence between factions of the Sinaloa Cartel, fighting for control of smuggling routes south of 蜜柚直播.

That鈥檚 an example of how profitable human smuggling has become for cartels, said Jeremy Slack, border researcher and associate professor in the Department of Sociology and Anthropology at the University of Texas El Paso.

鈥淵ou didn鈥檛 used to see drug-war level violence around human smuggling routes, but now we do,鈥� Slack said. 鈥淚mmigration is big business to them, and it will be even bigger business the harder it gets to come to the U.S.鈥�

Trump cares more about the issue of immigration than about violence in Mexico, Slack said. His threats to impose tariffs on Mexican imports are likely more realistic 鈥� and more worrisome to Mexico鈥檚 leaders 鈥� than his threats to engage with cartels directly, he said.

鈥淚 feel like he often just uses the violence issue as a reason that immigration is a bad thing,鈥� he said. 鈥淗e doesn鈥檛 talk about cartel violence without mentioning the problem of the border and immigrants.鈥�

Impacts of 鈥榯errorist鈥� designation

Sending troops into Mexico, without a declaration of war by the U.S. Congress, would be an illegal act of aggression, Payan said. But Trump鈥檚 and Republicans鈥� previous calls to designate cartels as 鈥渇oreign terrorist organizations鈥� could pave the way for other tactics, he said.

A terrorist designation could allow the U.S. to engage in intelligence gathering in Mexico without the government鈥檚 permission, he said. U.S. actors could then use drones 鈥� as they did in Afghanistan and Iraq 鈥� to remotely take out specific targets, like fentanyl labs, he said.

While that would be legitimate under U.S. law, 鈥淢exico would consider it a violation of its sovereignty and therefore illegal under international law,鈥� Payan said. 鈥淚t would be a major irritant鈥� on U.S.-Mexico relations, but the U.S. could have 鈥減lausible deniability,鈥� as criminal groups are increasingly using drones to attack one another, he said.

Such actions wouldn鈥檛 actually achieve much, some say.

Fentanyl labs are relatively cheap to set up and easily relocated, and taking out individual players in organized crime rings doesn鈥檛 achieve much more than generating headlines, said Malkin of the International Crisis Group.

鈥淔entanyl labs are in people鈥檚 kitchen. They鈥檙e very small and they鈥檙e very mobile,鈥� Malkin said. 鈥淏y the time they know where a fentanyl lab is, it will have moved and (the attack) could end up killing the family next door.鈥�

U.S. agencies鈥� historical efforts to take out cartel leaders haven鈥檛 succeeded in slowing the drug trade, and usually generate more violence as others scramble to fill the power vacuum, experts said.

鈥淲e鈥檝e never seen any evidence that does anything,鈥� Malkin said. 鈥淲hen one group is weakened, another one quickly steps up.鈥�

Existing laws on transnational criminal organizations already achieve much of what designating cartels as terrorist groups would do, Isacson said.

鈥淭heir assets are all but frozen. You can鈥檛 do business with them, you can鈥檛 do anything that would be supportive of them. They certainly can鈥檛 get visas to come to the United States,鈥� he said.

But the terrorist designation would make penalties for U.S. banks that aid cartels in money laundering much more severe, Isacson said.

It would also give Mexican asylum seekers fleeing to the U.S. an even stronger case for their asylum pleas, he said.

Mexico鈥檚 leverage underestimated

Trump may be underestimating the leverage Mexico has over the U.S., border researchers said.

It鈥檚 largely thanks to Mexico鈥檚 aggressive immigration enforcement south of the border, plus the Biden administration鈥檚 June restrictions on asylum, that migrant arrivals at the U.S. have dramatically slowed since December 2023, when record numbers of migrants were surrendering to U.S. border agents to request asylum.

Trump also has Mexico to thank for heightened immigration enforcement during his first term, as well as the so-called 鈥淩emain in Mexico鈥� policy his administration implemented in 2019, before it faced a court challenge. The policy depended on Mexico allowing the U.S. to return asylum seekers across the border to wait there 鈥� often in dangerous conditions 鈥� until their asylum cases processed.

If Trump follows through on his threats, 鈥淚 think the consequences would be that Mexico would no longer cooperate with the anti-immigrant agenda,鈥� Slack said.

On the day after the U.S. election Mexico鈥檚 new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, initially said it would be 鈥減rudent鈥� to wait until all votes had been tallied before congratulating the winner. She also offered reassurances to Mexicans at home and abroad.

鈥淭o all Mexicans, there is no reason to worry,鈥� Sheinbaum said in Wednesday鈥檚 daily press conference. 鈥淭o our brothers and sisters living in the U.S., to their family members living here, to the business people, there is no reason to worry. Mexico will always prevail. We are a free, independent, sovereign nation and there will be a good relationship with the United States. I am convinced of that.鈥�

Sheinbaum ended up congratulating Trump later in the day on Wednesday.

鈥淚 would like to express my most sincere congratulations to Donald Trump, who won the presidential election of the United States of America,鈥� Sheinbaum wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter. 鈥淚 am certain that we will continue to work together in a coordinated manner, with dialogue and respect for our sovereignties, to advance the broad bilateral agenda that links us.鈥�

Neither Sheinbaum鈥檚 office, nor that of Sonora Gov. Alfonso Durazo, responded to the Star鈥檚 request for comment late last week on Trump鈥檚 rhetoric about organized crime.

Organized crime evolving in Mexico

The structure of organized crime in Mexico has changed over the past 20 years, evolving from an era when six regional cartels operated relatively discretely, according to Mexico-based security analyst Eduardo Guerrero, director of Lantia Consultores and former director of Mexico鈥檚 National Electoral Institute.

Today two major groups 鈥� the Sinaloa Cartel and Jalisco Cartel 鈥� dominate, along with dozens of regional mafias and hundreds of local criminal cells that act as 鈥渟ubcontractors,鈥� said Guerrero, during a hosted in April by the Georgetown Americas Institute.

Since Mexico鈥檚 war on drugs began in 2006, criminal groups have diversified their income streams from drug trafficking to include extortion of avocado farmers, fuel theft, kidnapping, human trafficking and human smuggling, according to a May from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency.

The growing power of organized crime, and their long-time collusion with government authorities, has left some areas of Mexico largely under the criminal groups鈥� control, notably in southern state of Guerrero, where civilians are at the mercy of local mafias, InSight Crime has reported.

The violence, and widespread impunity for homicides and disappearances, are also driving forced migration to the United States.

Some of the cartels鈥� tactics now amount to psychological terrorism, in an effort to intimidate entire populations, including gruesome displays of dismembered or burned bodies, Payan said.

鈥淎 lot of the operations of these cartels have taken on a psychological component, an intimidatory component that I think must be taken seriously,鈥� he said.

Many Mexicans want their government to more aggressively take on organized crime, Payan said.

鈥淚 think the Mexican government has neglected its No. 1 duty under the social contract, which is to provide citizen security,鈥� Payan said.

The prospect of decisive action by Trump might force Sheinbaum to work more closely with the U.S. than her predecessor, he said.

鈥淚 think Sheinbaum would have no choice but to coordinate operations with the United States, or the U.S. will do it on its own,鈥� he said.

Solutions

Building safe and regular avenues to immigrate 鈥� such as the Biden Administration鈥檚 CBP One application 鈥� disempowers criminal groups who profit off migrants鈥� desperation and lack of options, Slack said.

鈥淭he big issue for (criminal groups) over the past year is, 鈥楬ow do you continue to make money off immigrants when they can sign into an app and make an appointment and go to the border like anyone else?鈥欌�� Slack said.

With Trump鈥檚 election, organized crime groups are celebrating, he said.

鈥淯nder a more restrictionist regime, having the Mexican government do this much more thoroughly in southern or central Mexico, is just going to make it so people have to pay more money and organized crime gets more benefit out of it,鈥� Slack said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a bonanza for corruption.鈥�

The most fruitful strategy for the U.S. would be to target corrupt government officials for colluding with organized crime groups in Mexico, Isacson said.

鈥淚f they want to confront Mexico, confront those people with proof,鈥� he said, pointing to the U.S. of Mexico鈥檚 former secretary of public security, Genaro Garc铆a Luna.

Last month in a U.S. district court, Garc铆a Luna was sentenced to 38 years in prison and a $2 million fine for decades of assisting the Sinaloa Cartel, in exchange for millions of dollars in bribes, according to U.S. Homeland Security Investigations.

A focus on government corruption also requires 鈥渁ssiduously assisting and protecting鈥� anyone in Mexico willing to investigate and denounce collusion with organized crime, Isacson said.

For Mexico鈥檚 mafias, those relationships with government actors are 鈥渢he oxygen they breathe,鈥� Isacson said. 鈥淎nyone actually going after breaking the links between the state and organized crime needs all the support from the United States they can get.鈥�