After a promising recovery from an opening defeat, the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Wildcats find themselves in a position that is becoming all too familiar in mid-November: They have more losses than wins.
This marks the third time in the past four seasons that ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ has had a sub-.500 record at some point in November. The only exception: 2017. The more distant it becomes in the rearview mirror, the more that season feels like an aberration.
Having more losses than wins also means having more questions than answers. We’ll attempt to tackle some of them in this week’s “Cats Stats.â€
None of them directly involves quarterbacks. We addressed that subject thoroughly during last week’s bye.
Instead, we’ll look at all three phases, focusing on areas where the Wildcats have been struggling (and others where they aren’t as bad as you’d think).
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1. If you could point to one stat that has led to ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s defensive drop-off, what would it be?
This one’s pretty obvious: It’s turnovers, or a lack thereof.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ had 10 takeaways in its first three games, 11 in its first four. It has just two in the past five, only one of which was a victory: at Colorado on Oct. 5.
Making matters worse, the Wildcats have turned the ball over 10 times during that span. The Oregon State game was just the third this season – and the first since UCLA on Sept. 28 – in which ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ didn’t have a giveaway.
Analytics experts will tell you that turnovers are subject to luck, at least to a certain degree. It was statistically improbable that the Wildcats could keep up their takeaway pace from early in the season. But what has happened lately is the other extreme: Not only are two takeaways in a five-game stretch an unusually low total, one of them came on a muffed punt. In other words, the UA defense has forced only one takeaway in five games — a fumble at USC.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s opponent Saturday, No. 6 Oregon, paces the Pac-12 with 20 takeaways — including a nation-best 17 interceptions — and leads the country in average turnover margin per game at plus-1.56. The Ducks also lead the conference with 26 sacks, while the Wildcats are last with 10. If you think getting pressure on the quarterback and taking the ball away have something to do with each other, you’re probably on to something.
2. Beyond points allowed, are there any specific numbers in the OSU game that suggest it was by far ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s worst performance of 2019?
Yep. Several. Here are the top candidates:
Oregon State’s 244 rushing yards were the most by a UA opponent this season.
Jake Luton’s 76.9% completion rate was the highest by an opposing quarterback.
The Beavers’ 70% conversion rate on third down was the highest by a UA foe this year (and all of last year).
The game marked the first time this season that a UA opponent scored touchdowns every time it entered the red zone (4 for 4, all rushing).
The game also marked the first time this season that ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ was not credited with a single pass breakup.
So yeah, it was as bad as it looked — maybe worse.
If you’re looking for a bright side, the Wildcats did have a season-high three sacks. That’s something.
3. How come tailback J.J. Taylor’s production isn’t on par with what he did last year?
There are several reasons for this — none of them having to do with a dip in Taylor’s performance.
Let’s start with this: Taylor suffered a high-ankle sprain against Texas Tech and basically missed 2½ games. He played about a half against the Red Raiders and one series three weeks later against Colorado.
Those games obviously count when tabulating Taylor’s all-purpose yards per game, which sit at 127.1 entering this weekend. That’s almost 49 yards less than last season’s figure, which ranked second in the nation and helped Taylor earn third-team All-America accolades.
If you exclude the Texas Tech and Colorado games, Taylor’s per-game average jumps to 162.3 yards — which would rank third in the country.
If you apply that same method to rushing totals, Taylor is well off last season’s pace. He has averaged 87.2 yards in the six games in which he’s been healthy. A year ago, he averaged 123.8.
But Taylor is being utilized in a different way. He has 20 receptions for 205 yards — both career highs.
Additionally, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ has made a concerted effort to get more running backs involved in the offense. In the six games in which Taylor has been healthy, the other UA backs have averaged 15.5 touches (rushes plus receptions). Last year, they averaged 11.7.
Finally, Taylor is averaging 5.3 yards per carry — just a tick below last year’s 5.6.
4. Why is ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s overall rushing production slightly down from last season?
The Wildcats averaged 202.4 rushing yards per game in 2018, leading the Pac-12 for the third consecutive season. They did it despite quarterback Khalil Tate being banged up for much of the season and rushing for only 224 yards.
This year, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ is averaging 196.0 rushing yards per game, which ranks second in the conference. The number is lower than last year’s average despite Tate having rushed for 312 yards, including three games in which he topped 100.
The biggest difference has nothing to do with rushing. Unlike the NFL, the NCAA folds sack yardage into rushing totals. Tate and Grant Gunnell have been sacked 25 times for a total of 160 yards in losses — already exceeding last year’s figures of 20 and 137.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ has lost 17.8 yards per game on sacks this year compared with 11.4 last year. The difference between those figures — 6.4 yards — is the same as the overall rushing disparity.
The Wildcats are averaging 5.0 yards per rush, up ever so slightly over last season’s 4.9-yard mark. Take sacks out of the equation, and the difference is even greater — 5.8 vs. 5.4.
So ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s rushing production might seem like it’s down, but it actually isn’t.
5. Is there any other significance to those sack-yardage figures you just referenced?
Why, yes. As mentioned, the Wildcats are last in the Pac-12 (and last among Power Five conference schools) in sacks generated by their defense. ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s 10 sacks have produced just 50 yards in losses.
Having lost 160 yards on sacks, the Wildcats have had an average deficit of 12.2 yards per game. Taking all tackles for losses into account, the difference is 15.6.
Add in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s average deficit in net punting of about 6 yards per game, and it should come as no surprise that the Wildcats have lost the field-position battle almost every week.
The UCLA game was the only time ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ has had a better average starting field position than its opponent. The Wildcats’ average deficit is 5.8 yards per game — despite Lucas Havrisik’s 78.1% touchback rate on kickoffs and ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ ranking second in the Pac-12 and 12th in the country in total offense (495.8 ypg).
6. What other unusual stats were unearthed in the course of researching this piece?
We’ve got one more for you. While Havrisik has struggled at times with placement kicks — he’s 8 of 13 on field goals and 34 of 36 on extra points — opposing kickers rarely have missed against the Wildcats.
UA opponents have made 14 of 15 field goal attempts and 36 of 36 PATs. The only miss? The would-be tying field goal at the end of regulation by UCLA’s JJ Molson.
Only five kickers in the country have yet to miss a field goal try this season (minimum one attempt per game, with participation in 75% of team’s games). Only two of those five have attempted as many as 15.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ is way overdue for some #collegekicker luck.