PHOENIX — Want a new job?
Consider administrative support, health care, construction or food service — particularly in the suburbs around Phoenix.
Those are the sectors of the economy and the areas of the state that the state Office of Economic Opportunity predicts will add the most jobs through the middle of 2019.
Overall employment is expected to grow by close to 153,000 jobs over the two-year period studied. That translates out to about 2.6 percent a year, faster than the estimated 1.9 percent annual increase in population, though down from 2.7 percent for the prior two years.
Pima County job growth will pick up a bit, going from a 1.6 percent annual increase in the prior two years to 1.7 percent in the near future.
Doug Walls, the agency’s research administrator, said the statewide job gains should lead to further declines in the state’s 4.8 percent unemployment rate.
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That also will likely lead to a tightening of the available labor supply — along with employers forced to offer higher wages to attract and keep workers.
But that 2.6 percent annual growth is not spread universally among all industries, or even geographically.
The biggest increase will be in the areas in Maricopa County outside of Phoenix, where employment is expected to increase by 4.4 percent a year compared with 1.2 percent in Phoenix. Walls said the boom for suburban employment is no surprise.
“There is room to grow,†Walls said.
And he said there’s something else: Maricopa County has a well-developed highway system which means that people can easily get from where they live to where they work.
As to what kind of jobs will be open, that presents a different picture.
Walls said the state should add more than 10,200 construction workers during the next two years.
An additional 8,529 jobs will be created in the area of health diagnosis and treatment, followed by 8,471 more people working at bars and restaurants.
Also look for strong growth in construction, with home ownership rates again on the rise as more people feel confident enough to take out a mortgage.
Conversely, look for relatively tepid hiring by retailers. While employment is expected to grow by nearly 6,800, that represents just a 1 percent annual growth.
“One of the reasons is the increased presence of e-commerce retail sales as a share of total retail sales,†Walls explained, a trend not limited to ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥. In fact, he noted, online sales now represent 9.1 percent of all purchases, nearly triple the rate of a decade ago.
“As the retail space continues to find its equilibrium, we’re anticipating a slowdown in the brick-and-mortar establishment employment through the next two years,†he said.
At the same time, employment in what are classified as “non-store retailers†is expected go grow by 5.9 percent a year.
Walls said there is one crucial exception to this trend toward online sales: building materials and garden equipment dealers, with an expected 3 percent annual growth in employment at places like large home improvement stores.
“This is one area that, because of the items that are being sold, has not been as threatened because of online retail,†he said.
Strong growth also is expected in health-care jobs.
Walls said part of that is because ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ has a lot of seasonal visitors who need care while they’re here. And there’s also demographics.
“We have a larger share of individuals who are 65 and older than the average state,†people who need more care, Walls said.
And Walls said the state’s mining industry, which has shed jobs during the past year, should get back into positive territory as the price of copper is back above $3 a pound.
The prediction of where the new jobs will be in the next two years points up one thing that hasn’t really changed from the past two years: the amount of education required.
According to Walls, slightly more than a quarter of the jobs ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ will create require no formal education or credentials at all. And another nearly 42 percent can be filled by people with only a high school diploma or equivalent.
By contrast, only 23 percent of the jobs will need a bachelor’s degree or more.
Walls said, though, that with the exception of the jobs that require no formal education — ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ will create more of those jobs than the national average — the other categories are pretty much in line with the rest of the country.
He also pointed out that 85 percent of those jobs open to those with a high school diploma or less will require at least some short-term on-the-job training.
Outside Maricopa County, Walls said the most rapid growth rate in employment will be in Pinal County at 2.1 percent. But that’s still a drop from the 2.6 percent annual growth rate for the past two years.
