In recent weeks, a relatively higher percentage of people with COVID-19 have reported going to restaurants, bars and events in Pima County, according to data collected by contact tracers at Maximus, the company contracted to do contact tracing for the county.
This uptick ended a monthslong downward trend in the right direction. County officials pointed out that the uptick happened since around the time Gov. Doug Ducey lifted occupancy limits at businesses on March 5.
Since then, the percentage of people contact tracers investigated who had been to a bar or restaurant in the past 14 days increased from just over 25% to just under 30%. And the percentage of these people who had been to an event with at least 10 people increased from around 10% to just over 15%.
While these percentages have recently increased, the total number of positive cases are down in a big way from their peak this winter, as more people have gotten vaccinated.
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ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s top health official, Dr. Cara Christ, said the uptick that contact tracers are reporting could be due to a combination of factors that have resulted in people starting to get back to normal.
Faced with the country's highest rate of new coronavirus infections, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer on Friday urged a two-week suspension of in-person high school classes, all youth sports and indoor restaurant dining.
“So that could be that people are going back out to restaurants,†she said. “I don’t know if that had anything to do with the occupancy limits.â€
We can’t know if the governor caused these metrics to trend in the wrong direction when he lifted occupancy limits, but we can look at the timing and assume his actions are associated with the uptick, said Dr. Francisco Garcia, Pima County’s chief medical officer.
“We can see that there’s an association at least temporarily, with what he’s doing. I do think it’s due to that,†he said.
Garcia also thinks this uptick is due to general pandemic fatigue. For example, the percentage of people who had traveled before testing positive had already started to climb before Ducey lifted occupancy limits. And the percentage of people who had attended an event, bar or restaurant had also started to creep up.
“I believe that the message that the governor has sent is that, for all intents and purposes, we’re done,†Garcia said. “And I want to make sure that the people in Pima County are aware that we have good reason to believe that we are not done yet, even though things are getting better here pretty soon. We’re not out of the woods yet.â€
Garcia highlighted the contract-tracing trends in a memo that County Administrator Chuck Huckelberry sent to the Pima County Board of Supervisors, which sought to justify extending Maximus’ contract-tracing contract through Jan. 5, 2022, for $5 million.
The supervisors approved extending the contract in a 4-1 vote on Tuesday.
“Kind of paradoxically, contact tracing may actually be more important as we move forward, than it has been,†said Dr. Joe Gerald, an associate professor with the University of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s College of Public Health.
There were just too many cases weeks and months ago, he said. There was no way contact tracers could track down every lead because cases were everywhere.
He explained that there’s a greater capacity to do effective contact tracing in a timely manner as case counts decline.
“With that said, though, in the bigger picture I don’t think contact tracing and case investigations have the same public health benefit for this particular disease as for some other diseases like tuberculosis or sexually transmitted infections,†Gerald said.
Certain characteristics of COVID-19 make it inherently more difficult to trace and isolate, he said. For the virus that causes COVID-19, for example, much of the transmission risk happens before a carrier realizes they are sick and as many as half of carriers are asymptomatic.
How unsafe is it that contract tracers are reporting that a higher percentage of people with COVID-19 have gone to restaurants, bars or events?
“Well, I mean, we’ve just weathered a huge devastating outbreak and so where we are today is orders of magnitude better,†Gerald said. “I think the fact that our improvements have stalled and are maybe reversing a little bit is reason for concern, but not alarm.â€
Cases have largely been flat, showing another small week-to-week increase across ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ and in Pima County.
Statewide cases increased by 4% to 4,420 from March 21-27 to March 28-April 3. And countywide cases are up 3% to 616, according to the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Department of Health Services’ online chart of COVID-19 cases by day, as of Saturday, April 10.
Weekly case counts in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ and Pima County are still down 93% from the winter highs.
Statewide, about 35% of people have received at least one dose of vaccine, according to the ADHS chart of vaccine administration, as of Saturday.
About 41% of Pima County’s population has also been fully vaccinated, says the ADHS chart of vaccine prioritization, as of Saturday.
“There’s no clear evidence yet that we are on a trajectory that’s going to take us back to another surge or another mini-surge, something on the order of what Michigan is experiencing, one of the worst states right now,†Gerald said.
Photos: COVID-19 vaccinations in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Pima County
COVID-19 vaccination clinic, retirement community

Otilia Aragon, a resident of The Fountains at La Cholla retirement community, reaches out to touch the face of her daughter Melinda Aragon-Morales, a pharmacist with CVS, who administered the Moderna vaccine to her mother during a Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination clinic at The Inn At The Fountains, 5830 N Fountains Ave., on Feb. 9, 2021. "I was really excited," Morales said about administering the vaccine to her mother, "especially in this kind of setting where we haven’t been able to see [family] in a long time." Morales had not seen her mother in several months due to the ongoing pandemic. The clinic is the first of two days where the 585 residents and staff at the retirement community will receive vaccinations for COVID-19.
COVID-19 vaccinations, University of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Mall

People are directed into the line at the University of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥'s COVID-19 drive-thru vaccination facilities on the UA Mall in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., February 5, 2021.
COVID-19, clinic, TCC

The line wends though the parking lots and along the southeastern doors and windows outside the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Convention Center as hundreds wait in line for hours to get the first shot of the COVID-19 vaccine, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., February 4, 2021. The age cut off for vaccination was lowered to 70 years of age.
COVID-19 vaccinations, PIma County, Hacienda at the Canyon

Resident Victor Braun laughs with a CVS Pharmacy health care worker after getting his first dose of the Moderna COVID vaccine at Hacienda at the Canyon, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., January 27, 2021. The facility's residents and staff were part of a two day vaccination program in conjunction with CVS Pharmacy and monitored by the in-house personnel from TMCOne clinic.
COVID-19 vaccinations, PIma County, Hacienda at the Canyon

A health care worker with CVS Pharmacy preloads a syringe with the first dose of the Moderna COVID vaccine at Hacienda at the Canyon, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., January 27, 2021. The facility's residents and staff were part of a two day vaccination program in conjunction with CVS and monitored by the in-house personnel from TMCOne clinic.
COVID-19 vaccinations, PIma County, Hacienda at the Canyon

Gordon Starr quickly gets his first dose of the Moderna COVID vaccine at Hacienda at the Canyon, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., January 27, 2021. Starr was among the facility's residents and staff taking part in a two day vaccination program in conjunction with CVS Pharmacy and monitored by the in-house personnel from TMCOne clinic.
COVID-19 vaccinations, PIma County, Hacienda at the Canyon

Nurse Jose Cruz helps member Nelda Clark get her next appointment photographed and stored in her phone after she got her first dose of the Moderna COVID vaccine at Hacienda at the Canyon, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., January 27, 2021. The facility's residents and staff were part of a two day vaccination program in conjunction with CVS Pharmacy and monitored by the in-house personnel from TMCOne clinic.
COVID-19 vaccinations, PIma County, Hacienda at the Canyon

James Sugg gets his first dose of the Moderna COVID vaccine at Hacienda at the Canyon, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., January 27, 2021. Shannon Ruedlinger, executive director of the facility said that 250 doses were scheduled to be administered to staff and residents there during their two day vaccination program.
COVID-19 vaccinations, PIma County, Hacienda at the Canyon

Member Terrence Carden get his first dose of the Moderna COVID vaccine on the second day of a two program at Hacienda at the Canyon, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., January 27, 2021. Shannon Ruedlinger, executive director of the facility said that 250 doses were scheduled to be administered to staff and residents there during their two day vaccination program.
COVID-19 vaccinations, PIma County, Hacienda at the Canyon

Constance Jill Hofer gets her first dose of the Moderna COVID vaccine at Hacienda at the Canyon, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., January 27, 2021. Shannon Ruedlinger, executive director of the facility said that 250 doses were scheduled to be administered to staff and residents there during their two day vaccination program. Vaccinations were administered in conjunction with CVS and members monitored by the facility's in-house TMCOne nurses.
COVID-19 vaccinations, PIma County, Hacienda at the Canyon

Right now, Pima County is in Phase 1B of its vaccination plan and is inoculating people 70 and older, and law enforcement, education and child care providers.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Clifford Daigler, registered nurse, receives a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center, 5301 E. Grant Rd., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. on Dec. 17, 2020. Banner-University Medical Center and ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center began administering Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccines to healthcare workers in Pima County. TMC administered 1,100 total vaccines between their two clinic sites in the first day of vaccinations, said Claudia Koreny, director of pharmacy for TMC.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Needles containing the Moderna vaccine in the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center drive-thru tent at, on Jan. 5, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Ann Boice receives the Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine during the administration vaccination to members of the public who meet the 1B priority eligibility of at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center's Marshal Center, on Jan. 15, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Annie Waits, a volunteer nurse and vaccinator, administers the Moderna vaccine to a patient in the drive-thru program at the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center, on Jan. 5, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Steve Patalsky, left, associate director of pediatric bone-marrow transplant, goes over information about the COVID-19 vaccine with Sayea Jenabzadeh, nurse anesthetist, inside the COVID-19 vaccine observation stage at Banner-University Medicine North, 3838 N. Campbell Ave., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. on Dec. 17, 2020. The first round of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccines were given to healthcare workers at Banner-University Medical Center and ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Amy Lopez, left, registered nurse in peri-operative service, and her husband Dr. Mike Lopez, anesthesiologist, talk while waiting for their 15 minutes observation period after receiving their COVID-19 vaccine at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center, 5301 E. Grant Rd., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. on Dec. 17, 2020. The first round of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccines are given in Pima County to healthcare workers at Banner-University Medical Center and ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center. "It felt like a normal shot," said Amy Lopez. When asked if they were nervous, Dr. Mike Lopez answered "I was ready to be patient one."
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Samantha Penn, pharmacist, waits in line with other healthcare workers while people get checked-in for their COVID-19 vaccination appointments at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center, 5301 E. Grant Rd., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. on Dec. 17, 2020.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

After receiving the second Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in Pima County, Melissa Zukowski, medical director of emergency department at Banner-University Medicine ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, gives a thumbs-ups to her daughter Sophia Smallwood, left, at Banner-University Medicine North, 3838 N. Campbell Ave., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. on Dec. 17, 2020.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Leticia Riesgo, a City of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ employee, helps check people into the vaccination clinic for Phase 1B.1.b Prioritized Essential Workers at the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Convention Center, on Jan. 21, 2021. The TCC clinic administered 686 out of a projected 600 vaccines on Jan. 20. They were over 300 vaccinations at midday on Jan. 21.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

A person walks past a sign for the vaccination clinic for Phase 1B.1.b Prioritized Essential Workers at the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Convention Center, on Jan. 21, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Iris Delfakis, oncology nurse navigator for the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Cancer Center, looks to other nurses as she waits to receive a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine from nurse Cristina Torres.
at Banner-University Medicine North, 3838 N. Campbell Ave., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. on Dec. 17, 2020. The first round of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccines are given in Pima County went to healthcare workers at Banner-University Medical Center and ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Police Officer Roman Acosta is administered the Moderna vaccine at a Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine clinic at the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Convention Center located at 260 S. Church Ave., on Jan. 15, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Tal Caspi, a volunteer, answers questions for members of the public before they receive their first vaccine shot for the coronavirus at the Kino Sports Complex, 2500 E. Ajo Way in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., on January 18, 2021. Members of the public who fall into the Phase 1B group are eligible for the vaccine at this time. Phase 1B includes people over 75 years old, educators and first responders.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Tom Woythal, 85, and his wife, Elizabeth, 82, wait for their opportunity to receive a vaccination shot for the coronavirus at the Kino Sports Complex, 2500 E. Ajo Way in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., on January 18, 2021. Woythal says he had been waiting 55 minutes but was happy to wait. Members of the public who fall into the Phase 1B group are eligible for the vaccine at this time. Phase 1B includes people over 75 years old, educators and first responders.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

A patient looks over paperwork while waiting 15 minutes after receiving the Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center's Marshal Center, on Jan. 15, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Police Department Chief Chris Magnus receives the Moderna vaccine at a Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine clinic at the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Convention Center located at 260 S. Church Ave., on Jan. 15, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

People wait in the to be given the Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine as members of the public who meet the 1B priority eligibility are now being allowed to receive the vaccination at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center's Marshal Center, on Jan. 15, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

People eligible for the 1B phase of Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination stand in line outside the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center's Marshal Center to receive the shot, on Jan. 15, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

A pharmacist prepares a Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine to be administered to members of the public who meet the 1B priority eligibility of at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center's Marshal Center, on Jan. 15, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Sgt. Michael Moseley receives the Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine during the administration of the vaccination to members of the public who meet the 1B priority eligibility of at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center's Marshal Center, on Jan. 15, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

People eligible for the 1B phase of Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination stand in line outside the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center's Marshal Center to receive the shot, on Jan. 15, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Pharmacists prepare Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations to be administered to members of the public who meet the 1B priority eligibility of at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center's Marshal Center, on Jan. 15, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Mike Collier, a volunteer doctor with the Medical Reserve Corps, administers a Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine while working his shift in the drive-thru vaccination program at the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center, on Jan. 8, 2021.
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

“We thought this would be a more efficient and timely process,†says ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ AARP director Dana Kennedy. “Did they overpromise?â€
COVID-19 vaccinations, Pima County

Pharmacist Keith Boesen (right) drops off needles containing the Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine at the station of Mike Collier (left), a volunteer doctor with the Medical Reserve Corps, during the drive-thru vaccination program at the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center, on Jan. 8, 2021.