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The best guess: The city was preparing a transportation initiative that could replace the existing, countywide Regional Transportation Authority tax but only apply within the city limits.

That wasn’t it at all. As it turns out, the sales-tax proposal ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ans are considering originated as an idea to strictly benefit the city’s public safety departments. The idea came to the city from the main public safety unions, the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Police Officers Association and the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Fire Fighters Association.

After polling was conducted and the city administration got involved, the idea got massaged into the more mixed proposal we are beginning to vote on in the coming days. What we’re voting on is a proposal that, instead sends about 66% of the expected $80 million per year to public-safety needs and about 34% to affordable housing, homelessness and other social needs.

If you’re like me, you’re both attracted to the promise of what the half-cent tax could bring a city that needs a lot of help but also skeptical about how we got here and whether it’s really necessary. I attended an open house, a presentation and a press conference dealing with Prop. 414 last week and came away still undecided about my vote but pretty clear on what will guide it.

Beyond the history of the proposition, here are the factors I’m considering most of all.

What ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ans want

What I’ve heard ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ans say they want are three main things: Improved roads, better emergency response, and fewer disruptive street people.

The first, roads, is being taken care of gradually, largely under Prop. 411, a 10-year, half-cent sales tax that city voters passed in 2022. The Regional Transportation Authority’s projects, such as the East Grant Road reconstruction, are reaching their end as that tax expires in 2026.

What drives many people crazy these days is that when they call 911, they can’t be sure anyone will pick up. And if someone picks up, they can’t be sure emergency responders will show up, especially in calls needing police response. We have no idea how many minor crimes are going unreported simply because people don’t report them anymore.

This proposal would address that by, among other things:

— Adding 10 operators each to the staff of the 911 and 311 centers for a total of $1.8 million per year

— Upgrading communications-center technology at a cost of $4.1 million per year

— Building a new near-northwest side fire station at a cost of $1.2 million per year

— Paying for 66 additional fire department personnel

— Covering the cost of 40 additional ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ police officers and 40 community service officers or professional staff investigators

As to “street people,â€� I use that phrase advisedly — not “unhoused,â€� “homelessâ€� nor “addictedâ€� — because for me the phrase encapsulates those who ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ residents are often upset about. They may or may not have a bed to sleep in, they may or may not be actively abusing drugs.

But they are on the streets, often in groups, often causing disturbances in our neighborhoods, occupying bus stops, or selling and smoking drugs in the open.

The city has been responding to the addiction and homelessness wave, but it simply hasn’t been enough, as housing prices rise, and cheap, addictive drugs remain pervasive. Prop. 414 would among many other things, put $2.75 million per year toward assistance for affordable housing development and spend $5 million total establishing a center for people on opioids to get medical treatment and begin recovery.

Not everyone agrees with my assessment of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ans’ desires. April Putney, spokeswoman for one of the anti-414 efforts, pointed out to me that the city conducted a survey of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ans budget priorities last year. Increasing the number of first responders fell in 7th place.

Higher priorities included: expanding affordable housing, investing more in poverty reductions, improving city infrastructure, spending more on water security and conservation.

I note, though, that only 358 ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ans responded to the survey. And the answers they gave don’t gibe with what I hear. In sum, I do think the proposition would address some of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ans’ highest priorities.

Alternatives to a tax

One of the most compelling arguments I’ve heard stems from the out-of-the-blue nature of the proposition.

On Thursday evening, I got to watch as Flowing Wells Neighborhood Association President Kevin Daily questioned ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Police Chief Chad Kasmar and city chief of staff Lane Mandle in front of a small audience of neighborhood leaders. Daily is a leader of the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Crime Free Coalition, which, paradoxically considering its desire for better police response, opposes the proposition.

The key point Daily made is that he’s seen no evidence that the City Council looked for waste or opportunities for savings before embracing this initiative that would raise the city sales tax rate to 9.2%.

“I never heard the council make an argument saying we need to make some choices,� Daily said. “All they said is we need more money.�

Similarly, Michael Guymon of the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Metro Chamber of Commerce, a leading opponent of the initiative, said, “We’d like to see the City Council prioritize public safety more than they currently are and not use a sales tax to do that.â€�

What should be cut?

Naturally, I’ve asked Daily, Guymon and other opponents what they think the city should cut in order to spend more on public safety and solving housing and addictions issues.

The only firm answer they come up with is this: Start charging bus fares again.

The City Council stopped charging fares in 2020, with the onset of the pandemic and the arrival of big blocks of federal funding. After repeatedly reconsidering fare-free transit, the council finally decided to absorb the $10 million-$13 million-per-year cost into its general fund.

Daily and others have clung to that $13 million figure as what ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ could make if it re-imposed fares. But that’s unlikely: Re-imposing fares cost money, and after that ridership is likely to be depressed. It’s unlikely that the city would make $10 million in fares if it were to reimpose them.

As to the rest of the waste that people complain of, nobody has pointed me to specifics that would make a significant dent.

Other tax factors

The chamber’s main argument has been that ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ shouldn’t establish the highest sales tax in the state for any city over 75,000 in size, at 9.2%. That’s a worthy point, but it’s important to remember that’s not permanent.

“The tax rate ebbs and flows,� noted City Council Member Paul Cunningham. “If the RTA isn’t renewed, the sales tax remains the same.�

This is a key point. The half-cent, countywide sales tax that funds the Regional Transportation Authority is set to expire in 2026. A proposal to establish a new RTA plan, “RTA Next,� and extend the tax for another 20 years will go to county voters in the next year or so, but it has uncertain prospects.

The city of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, which was a bastion of support for the RTA when it won in 2006, is now a center of discontent. If ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ votes against the RTA’s renewal, it’s unlikely to pass. If voters pass Prop. 414 but defeat the RTA Next plan, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ will be back at 8.7 % sales tax in 2026. Of course, then we’d have to worry about how to pay for big transportation projects.

The RTA tax isn’t the only temporary sales tax we’re paying, either. In 2017, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ voters approved a 10-year, 1/10 of one cent sales tax to benefit Reid Park Zoo. That expires in 2028.

Other big factors enter this conversation, too. It’s likely, for example, that federal funding for all sort of needs will end. This could argue for taxing ourselves now, but it also could argue for waiting to see what happens and reacting later when the picture becomes clearer.

The bottom line

When I cast my vote, I’ll be thinking about two main points.

The best argument for a “yesâ€� vote: Prop. 414 will help the city government do a lot of the things ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ans want.

The best argument for a “no� vote: The city hasn’t adequately considered other ways to pay for solving these problems.