蜜柚直播

鈥淢ass fallowing鈥� is a prime concern among representatives of several big irrigation districts along the river. The concern is growing as farm, city, state and federal officials seek to negotiate a compromise solution to carry out cuts in water use across the entire Colorado River Basin that were ordered last month by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

The bureau wants the seven river basin states to cut 2 million to 4 million acre-feet of water use next year. That amounts to up to nearly 30% of their total annual take from the river. The bureau says the cuts are needed to prevent Lakes Mead and Powell from falling so low they won鈥檛 be able to generate power or might even reach 鈥渄ead pool,鈥� where little or no water could be removed from them.

Farmers along the Lower Colorado will take a hefty slice of the cuts because they use the largest single share of river water in the Lower Basin, many experts say. In fact, the Imperial Irrigation District in Southern California west of Yuma owns the single largest share of river water rights in the entire basin.

Overall, the Lower Basin states of 蜜柚直播, California and Nevada are expected to take the largest share of cuts because they use more than twice as much water annually as the Upper Basin states of Utah, New Mexico, Colorado and Wyoming. A top Colorado water official, Rebecca Mitchell, said last week she believes the Lower Basin should take most of the cuts.

鈥淵ou can鈥檛 get to cuts of that magnitude without significant cuts to agriculture. You just can鈥檛,鈥� said Kathryn Sorensen, a researcher for 蜜柚直播 State University鈥檚 Kyl Center for Water Policy. 鈥淲ho exactly that is, where exactly that is, I don鈥檛 know.鈥�

鈥淚 understand that the growers have their contracts in for next year, for purchasers, for labor. These are businesses. They鈥檙e doing what they need to do to keep their businesses going. If there are significant cuts and a large portion goes to agriculture, I think you are looking at pretty significant fallowing. I don鈥檛 know how you get around that,鈥� said Sorensen, adding, 鈥淚 hope I鈥檓 wrong.鈥�

Less food available?

With reductions scheduled to be finalized next month and to take effect in 2023, several farm leaders said in interviews that avoiding large-scale removal of farmland from production will be difficult to impossible to avoid.

鈥淚鈥檝e been told there are as many as 150 different crops grown in Yuma, depending on what the demand is for the crops. We can grow anything in the Yuma Valley, damn near anything. We grow year round 鈥� whatever needs to be grown for the rest of the country,鈥� said Tom Davis, general manager of the Yuma County Water Users Association.

These farmers have long been national leaders in their production of food crops, with the Yuma area renowned for supplying at least 90% of the U.S.鈥檚 entire winter lettuce supply.

Farmers in the Imperial Valley, just west of the California-蜜柚直播 border, grow up to 200 crops, according to various reports and to agricultural leaders there.

If the reservoirs go dry, there will be a food shortage, and if officials must cut off water deliveries to avoid that, 鈥渢here will be less food available, or if it is available, it will be more expensive,鈥� said Davis, whose association represents farmers growing on about 45,000 acres in the Yuma area that are served by river water.

鈥淛ust think of a farm being the Abbott baby formula manufacturing plant,鈥� Davis said. 鈥淵ou cut that back, you end up with a shortage somewhere unless you end up growing it somewhere else. You can鈥檛 grow all of what we grow here somewhere else, although you can grow some of it.鈥�

But if the farmers do sustain heavy water use cuts, alfalfa growing 鈥� not winter vegetables 鈥� will take the biggest hit, said University of 蜜柚直播 agricultural economist George Frisvold and University of New Mexico water researcher John Fleck.

Far more acres of alfalfa and other forage crops to feed cattle are grown along the Lower Colorado than vegetables. Cutting vegetable crops will be the last resort, Frisvold said.

And if alfalfa growing is slashed, a lot of the cuts will be felt in reduced exports, not in shortages in cheese and other dairy products in the U.S., Frisvold said.

鈥淭he bigger impacts are going to be in farming communities,鈥� he said. People in Phoenix and 蜜柚直播 aren鈥檛 鈥渞eally going to notice this.鈥�

At the same time, farmers hope to gain compensation for their expected financial losses. They鈥檙e trying to join forces, to negotiate from a position of strength with city water users along with state and federal officials as they try to come up with a plan acceptable to the bureau.

鈥淲e鈥檙e five little counties, 12 little irrigation districts, negotiating against 蜜柚直播, California and the federal government. We鈥檙e a bunch of little irrigation districts arm wrestling with 800-pound gorillas.

鈥淏ut all together we鈥檙e a pretty strong gorilla,鈥� too, said Alan Boyce, a farmer near the Yuma area and in the Imperial Irrigation District who is involved in efforts to organize farmers in 蜜柚直播 and California.

Historic rights to water; heavy use

But they have become targets for criticism and for future water rights purchases by cities, which have long eyed the farms鈥� abundant, senior water rights as possible sources to replace what they鈥檒l lose as the Colorado River continues its rapid decline.

Much of the criticism has stemmed from the farms鈥� heavy dependence on growing water-thirsty alfalfa and other feed crops, although that鈥檚 more common among Southern California farms than in the Yuma area.

Between them, farmers in the counties along the Lower Colorado used more than 4.5 million acre-feet of river water in 2021, Bureau of Reclamation records show.

That approaches 65% of the total river water use last year in the entire Lower Colorado Basin, although it鈥檚 less than the 70% to 80% that experts say agriculture uses of the entire river鈥檚 supply. (In the past, the Central 蜜柚直播 Project also delivered a significant amount of water to farmers, particularly in Pinal County. But because of already declared shortages on the Colorado, the CAP was scheduled to provide only 42,000 acre feet to iagricultural users this year, and none in 2023).

For comparison, the Lower Basin鈥檚 two largest urban river water users, the three-county Central 蜜柚直播 Project and the six-county Metropolitan Water District in Southern California, used about 2.4 million acre-feet total in 2021.

Many of the Lower Colorado farmers have senior river water rights, dating as far back as the 1860s. That gives them much higher legal priority for the water than urban users.

Agriculture also has produced economic largesse for the areas, although the region鈥檚 personal incomes are lower than those of their urban counterparts.

Yuma County agriculture produces nearly $3.4 billion worth of crops annually, county officials say. In Imperial County, agricultural output in 2019 totaled $2.9 billion annually in direct economic output, and more than $4.3 billion when indirect economic benefits are considered, said a study published by that county鈥檚 Agricultural Commissioner鈥檚 Office.

But these farmers are generally perceived as having less political clout than the big cities, since the five Lower Colorado riverfront counties have about 867,000 people, equivalent to less than 20% of Maricopa County鈥檚 4.5 million people.

Bart Fisher, a governing board member for the Palo Verde Irrigation District, outside Blythe, California, noted the district already agreed in 2021 to fallow up to 19,461 of its 94,000 acres for three years starting this year, in return for $38 million in compensation from state and federal agencies.

鈥淭hen, if they come and say we need significantly more fallowing, what鈥檚 left to farm? What about our farmworkers? What about rural communities? When people don鈥檛 have employment, they are going to find employment somewhere else. We don鈥檛 want to be depopulated,鈥� Fisher said.

Compensation sought for harm

The most specific forecast of economic harm to agriculture comes from Alan Boyce. Executive chairman of the Manterra Farming Company, Boyce oversees farming activities extending from the Imperial Valley to Central 蜜柚直播鈥檚 Pinal County to California鈥檚 Central Valley and beyond.

Academically trained as an economist, he spent two years as a Federal Reserve Board junior economist in the early 1980s and later worked for 30 years as a Wall Street bond trader.

In a slide show he has presented to several Lower Colorado farming communities, Boyce said the 12 irrigation districts in that area need to take a cut of about 2.2 million acre-feet, almost half their total river water supplies, to do their share to meet the Bureau of Reclamation鈥檚 goals for stabilizing the big reservoirs. He calls his effort 鈥淪ave the River.鈥�

A cut of that scale, he projected, would require fallowing of about 185,000 acres year-round with another 444,000 acres fallowed part of the year. That鈥檚 about 20% of a total of about 925,000 acres farmed in those districts.

The 2.2 million acre-feet is actually about twice as much as the river basin states are currently discussing cutting from Lower Basin farmers in their ongoing negotiations, various sources say. But Boyce said he believes a cut of less than 2 million won鈥檛 be adequate to protect the reservoirs in the long run.

To accomplish the needed water savings, 鈥淲e need every irrigation district on the Lower Colorado to chip in or we cannot get there. Nobody rides for free,鈥� he said in an email to the 蜜柚直播.

As for what lands would be fallowed, he added, 鈥淗opefully we pick the worst ground that grows the lowest value crops. There is a bunch of that out there, old lake bottoms, sand bars and sand dunes.鈥�

He also projected the farms could save about 10% of their lost water without additional production cuts, by switching about 148,000 acres to more efficient practices such as drip irrigation. He would prefer to do that before resorting to large-scale land fallowing but said he doesn鈥檛 think the Lower Colorado farmers can all do it at once.

鈥淢assive shortages and supply chain issues make this even harder, and prices of pumps and pipe are zooming. Drip tape? Skilled labor? Non existent,鈥� he said in an email.

The production cuts required to carry out the needed fallowing would translate to about 32% in annual operating income losses across the five affected counties, three in 蜜柚直播 and two in California.

That would trigger about 20,000 job losses, directly and indirectly, across the entire region, Boyce projected.

He said he based many of these conclusions on computer models used by University of California economists who studied impacts of similarly severe water cuts on San Joaquin Valley farmers.

He estimated that governments will have to pay the irrigation districts more than $11 billion during the period 2023 through 2026 to compensate them for the resulting economic harm.

鈥淟ike really. In a time of runaway food inflation and food shortages, stop farming? Who needs it?鈥� asked Boyce, sarcastically.

鈥淚 would rather do anything with water use efficiency than with fallowing. But it鈥檚 too late,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he river is dying.鈥�

Economic impact debated

UA economist Frisvold has little doubt that massive water cuts would hurt the Lower Colorado River farmers economically. But after reviewing Boyce鈥檚 slides, he said the farmer appears to have overstated the economic impacts.

The first crops to go will be 鈥渇ield crops鈥� such as alfalfa, grasses such as durum wheat, corn and cotton, which are less profitable for farmers to grow, he said. 鈥淚f the cuts are enough to start hitting higher value crops such as fruit and vegetables, and I don鈥檛 think they would be, then they are in a world of hurt,鈥� Frisvold said.

鈥淓arly on there鈥檚 not going to be a lot of alternatives to fallowing. That鈥檚 one of the most costly ways to adjust. You鈥檙e basically cutting production all the way down to zero,鈥� he said.

Looking at Boyce鈥檚 slides, he noticed that for the Yuma area, the farmer projected a reduction in 69,350 acres of cropland would mean a loss of $768 million in net operating income, or $11,333 per acre.

But a 2017 study from the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis concluded that Yuma-area farmers earn a little more than $7,300 an acre in gross income, before expenses are considered, Frisvold said. Using a conservative estimate of crop production expenses would reduce the farmers鈥� operating income to below $4,000 an acre, 鈥渓ikely even lower,鈥� he said.

Replying, Boyce said the federal economic bureau inaccurately estimates the total irrigation acreage in the Yuma area, because there鈥檚 no mandatory reporting of crop acreage to local government in 蜜柚直播, unlike in California. That leads to an undercount of farm income per acre, he said.

Also, farm income today is higher than in 2017 because crop prices 鈥渁re way higher than in 2017 鈥� if they weren鈥檛 higher, we would all be bankrupt because our costs are up a bunch,鈥� he added.

Targeting thirsty, exported alfalfa

One water-saving program that governments at all levels could carry out is for that whole region to halt summertime irrigation of alfalfa, said UA law professor Robert Glennon, who has written two books about water and has advocated for that solution for years.

Much alfalfa is exported to other countries, leading critics to say the Southwest is exporting much of its water overseas.

In 2012, Glennon and Phoenix water attorney Peter Culp wrote an than other California growers 鈥渄ue to scorching heat, salty soil, and perhaps most important, their legal rights to an enormous quantity of cheap water.鈥�

鈥淚t鈥檚 a no brainer thing to curb alfalfa planting in the summer,鈥� Glennon said in an interview last month.

鈥淎lfalfa uses four times as much water in the summer as any other cutting of the crop during the year. The quality of the alfalfa is not as good as other times and the quantity isn鈥檛 as good. Farmers say they can鈥檛 do that, that the alfalfa stand would die. You focus first on alfalfa that鈥檚 been in the ground for four or five years and in the worst case you pay farmers for one to two years worth of summer crops if it doesn鈥檛 come back in September,鈥� Glennon said.

Glennon said he believes that could save a substantial amount of water, since the Imperial Irrigation District farmers grew 147,000 acres of alfalfa in 2021 鈥� more acres than the next three most heavily planted crops combined.

He has long advocated paying farmers to convert to more water-efficient irrigation methods.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported in 2018 that alfalfa uses 5.8 acre-feet of water per acre in 蜜柚直播 and 3.7 per acre in California.

Lettuce, by contrast, uses only 2.4 acre-feet per acre in 蜜柚直播, although it uses more, 4.2 acre-feet per acre, in California. Tomatoes, rarely grown in 蜜柚直播, require only 2.5 acre-feet per acre in California and potatoes and berries have similarly low water use, the USDA says.

鈥榃hat happens to the region鈥�

UNM鈥檚 Fleck, an author and water researcher, said he definitely expects to see 鈥渁 lot less irrigated land down there very, very quickly.鈥�

He, too, expects a substantial reduction in lower value crops such as alfalfa, but is less certain about the broader economic impacts.

鈥淲e will have an agricultural community that looks very different down there, for some period of time, maybe forever,鈥� Fleck said. 鈥淏ut what happens to the region will depend on two things: How much money is paid to compensate for their water and crop losses, and where does that money go?

鈥淗ow much of that goes to the landowner and how much to the farmer who leases from them? What about the tractor dealers? What about the pesticide specialists? How do we cushion that impact on them? That鈥檚 hard to know. We don鈥檛 know what this system will look like and those are really important questions.鈥�

Biggest water user is key to future

Many observers have long said the fate of agriculture in this region, and possibly the fate of the entire river, will hinge on what happens in the ongoing negotiations with the Imperial Irrigation District.

That鈥檚 because its 2.5 million acre-foot annual supply of river water more than doubles what any other user in the entire basin receives. That, in turn, means most water experts agree that without Imperial鈥檚 participation in water use cuts, there鈥檚 no way to fix the river鈥檚 increasing deficit between water supplies and demands.

鈥淭wo to four million acre-feet is an eye-popping number, certainly. We鈥檝e never dealt with anything like that in the Colorado River Basin,鈥� said J.B. Hamby, a district governing board member. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a recognition that living with less for at least a temporary time is better than nothing at all.

鈥淚n the Imperial Valley 100% of our water comes from the Colorado River. We have no other systems to depend on. If we lose Lake Mead, the Imperial Valley has no water,鈥� Hamby said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 important for us to be part of the solution. The question is, what can we come up with in this very short time frame?鈥�

The only way to save that much water quickly in the district would be through a temporary, emergency fallowing program, 鈥渘ot permanent,鈥� he said.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 always been an f-word here. We don鈥檛 like it,鈥� Hamby said. 鈥淐an we contribute in the short term to make sure Mead doesn鈥檛 get to dead pool? Yes.

鈥淚n the long run, we don鈥檛 want to do (fallowing). We want to be a farming community. There are other system-wide, water conservation agreements that could replace a temporary fallowing program. That will also require investment at the federal level,鈥� Hamby said.

鈥淔irst and foremost,鈥� however, he said Colorado River negotiators must deal with the fact that any reductions in river supplies to the Imperial Valley will also reduce water flows to the highly imperiled Salton Sea, nearby, because Imperials farmers鈥� irrigation runoff water is the sea鈥檚 main water source.

As valley water use has declined since earlier cuts were made two decades ago, the shrinking sea has contributed to major declines in fish and bird populations and increases in toxic air emissions from its blowing dust.

鈥淚t is unlikely we would agree to anything in water cutbacks unless there were strong Salton Sea commitments, binding federal and state commitments,鈥� Hamby said, and Fleck agrees.

鈥淭he more water we lose,鈥� Hamby noted, 鈥渢he more impacts, the more consequences it鈥檚 going to have, on human life and wildlife.鈥�