PHOENIX — How close is ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ to hitting a peak in COVID-19 cases?
That depends on whose numbers — and whose virus models — you believe.
Reports by several different organizations paint a wide spectrum of pandemic possibilities for the state. However, they include a piece of positive news: ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ will have enough hospital space, intensive-care beds and ventilators to treat its COVID-19 patients.
But the question now goes to when Gov. Doug Ducey will conclude that the worst of the coronavirus outbreak has passed and the risk is sufficiently reduced in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ to begin unwinding restrictions he imposed on everyday life.
And the governor has to make some decisions soon: His stay-at-home orders are set to end at the end of April 30. He has not said whether the orders will continue, be modified or end.
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“Regardless of which one of these models happens to be right, we’re prepared,†Ducey said.
“We don’t know if we’re past the peak or before the peak,†Ducey said this week.
“I’m not going to morph into a fortuneteller and answer your question,†Ducey said in response to a question from Capitol Media Services about his timeline. “We’re going to follow the facts.â€
And the modeling?
“These are speculations that are educated speculations,†Ducey said.
On the optimistic side — what state health director Cara Christ called the “rosiest†model — is the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Its most recent report suggests that the peak in daily deaths could occur by this weekend.
Longer term, the model shows a declining death rate, probably hitting zero or close to that by June 13. But it still figures that 583 ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ns eventually will die from COVID-19.
On a more practical level, the IHME model figures that ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s use of hospital facilities won’t grow at all from this point forward.
By contrast, Christ said federal agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, shared with her models they had built for ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ based on projection formulas developed by John Hopkins University.
Christ did not share any death data from that model, saying that she has not received permission to provide how they got to the numbers. But she said that model predicts that the use of hospital beds and medical equipment will not peak in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ until around June 11.
“This model appears to be the most realistic, and the predictions are reassuring,†the director said.
What makes that model particularly relevant, Christ said, is that it assumes the state’s emergency orders end April 30.
That finding could prove key to any decision Ducey makes in the next week, as it suggests that extending “mitigation strategies†beyond the end of the month might result in an earlier peak — and, potentially, fewer cases of the virus and fewer deaths.
Others have their own proposals.
One, said Christ, was developed by her agency partnering with the University of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ and ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ State University for a “more targeted, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥-specific model.â€
It produced its own range of infections, with a mid-range prediction of about 88,466 cases. But what it predicts is that the peak will not occur until about the middle of May. It predicts peak hospital bed and ICU usage to come about May 22.
And if that’s not enough, there’s another model produced by . It was created by volunteers who partnered with epidemiologists and data scientists to look at not just the raw numbers, but the effects of intervention.
Based on current trends, that model predicts that 4 percent of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ns eventually will contract the virus, with a total of 2,000 deaths.
But the model also has a warning of sorts. It says if restrictions are lifted, up to 70 percent of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ns could be infected in the next three months, with 65,000 people eventually dying.
This model also does some county-by-county breakdowns.
In Pima County, for example, even with no easing of restrictions, it predicts 6 percent of the population will contract COVID-19. By contrast, maintaining stay-at-home provisions will still mean 3 percent infection rate in Yavapai County, 2 percent in Mohave County and the same for ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ County.
At the other extreme, projections based on current trends for Navajo County shows a 12 percent infection rate in the coming three months.
Photos for April 11: ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during Coronavirus Pandemic
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Susan Hillman chats with her mother Betty Hillman via telephone, April 9, 2020, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. Eighty-five year old Betty Hillman is in long term skilled care and Susan is unable to visit due to COVID-19 restrictions on nursing home facilities.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Susan Hillman chats with her mother Betty Hillman near a photo of Betty and her husband, Susan's dad, Bill, circa 2105, April 9, 2020, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. Eighty-five year old Betty Hillman is in long term skilled care and Susan is unable to visit due to COVID-19 restrictions on nursing home facilities.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Ben Forbes, left, owner of Forbes Meat Company, helps Jeronimo "Mo" Madril, right owner and executive chef of Geronimo's Revenge, wrap up tortilla's for to-go carnitas for Forbes Meat Company and Geronimo's Revenge's "Carnitas for the community" at Thunder Canyon Brewery, 220 E. Broadway Blvd., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., on April 6, 2020. Forbes Meat Company and Geronimo's Revenge partnered to help the restaurant community by offering free carnitas to those affected by the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). They will be making to go carnitas every Monday in April starting at 2pm until all the to go packs, roughly 60, are all gone. Forbes wanted to find a way to help out the restaurant community. "They are struggling and my business is exploding," said Forbes.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

David Clark, left, out of work bartender, and Jeronimo "Mo" Madril, owner and executive chef of Geronimo's Revenge, practice social distancing while waiting to give out carnitas for Forbes Meat Company and Geronimo's Revenge's "Carnitas for the community" at Thunder Canyon Brewery, 220 E. Broadway Blvd., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., on April 6, 2020. Forbes Meat Company and Geronimo's Revenge partnered to help the restaurant community by offering free carnitas to those affected by the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). They will be making to go carnitas every Monday in April starting at 2pm until all the to go packs, roughly 60, are all gone.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Steve Tracy, Thunder Canyon Brewery co-owner and brewer, fills up 16oz bottles of locally made hand sanitizer at Thunder Canyon Brewery, 220 E. Broadway Blvd., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., on April 6, 2020. Thunder Canyon Brewery, along with a few other local distilleries, are making United States Food and Drug Administration approved hand sanitizer for hospitals, first responders and the public in response to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). "Whatever I have, I am turning into hand sanitizer," said Tracy. "We are going to keep making it as much as we can."
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Steve Tracy, Thunder Canyon Brewery co-owner and brewer, fills up 16oz bottles of locally made hand sanitizer at Thunder Canyon Brewery, 220 E. Broadway Blvd., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., on April 6, 2020. Thunder Canyon Brewery, along with a few other local distilleries, are making United States Food and Drug Administration approved hand sanitizer for hospitals, first responders and the public in response to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). "Whatever I have, I am turning into hand sanitizer," said Tracy. "We are going to keep making it as much as we can."
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

David Sbarra, a psychology professor at the University of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, points his webcam at his children Margot, 9, and Mateo, 12, as he begins his introduction of his office hours for a class he now conducts over Zoom in his living room while teaching from home, on April 7, 2020.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Ben Elias, manager at Westbound, center, helps Dustin Schaber with his pickup order on April 8, 2020. Due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) only two customers are allowed in the shop, located at the MSA Annex, at the same time and all orders are to-go.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Laura Tanzer, a local fashion designer, posted on Facebook that she will make masks for $5.00 each on April 5. Tanzer thought she would receive a couple of dozen orders, but, within 24 hours she heard from over 200 people. Tanzer is now working out of her shop in downtown ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ making masks that also has a filter sowed into them. Tanzer is wearing one of her masks as she sows on April 8, 2020.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Oro Valley Hospital chief administration officer Erinn Oller talks with Fang, a local organizer with the Chinese-American COVID-19 Relief AZ group, which donated 6,000 masks, on April 9, 2020. Additional mask donations are planned as soon as shipments arrive.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Healthcare workers line up for their 2 free Sonoran hot dogs and a drink from BK Carne Asada & Hot Dogs in the parking lot of St. Mary's Hospital on April 10, 2020. The owner, Benny Galaz, is giving free food to healthcare workers at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ area hospitals for the next several weeks as a way to say thank you for their hard work during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Benny Galaz, owner of BK Carne Asada & Hot Dogs, cooks up Sonoran hot dogs in the parking lot of St. Mary's Hospital on April 10, 2020. Galaz is giving free food to healthcare workers at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ area hospitals for the next several weeks as a way to say thank you for their hard work during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Healthcare workers line up for their 2 free Sonoran hot dogs and a drink from BK Carne Asada & Hot Dogs in the parking lot of St. Mary's Hospital on April 10, 2020. The owner, Benny Galaz, is giving free food to healthcare workers at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ area hospitals for the next several weeks as a way to say thank you for their hard work during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

A man uses the taped off exercise station in Reid Park as an anchor for his band workout, April 8, 2020, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Alicia Roseanna, 9, fourth grader at Esperanza Elementary School, grabs a sheet of paper while listening to her teacher, Rachel Watson, and her classmates inside her home in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. during Watson's online class on April 7, 2020. Due to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) closing down schools and universities, teachers and students have been forced to schedule and participate in classes online for the remainder of the school year.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

COVID-19 survivor, Glen Reed, poses for a photo looking out from the room he's using for isolation from his family in his home, April 10, 2020, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. Reed spent nearly a month in the hospital including weeks in ICU on a ventilator.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

ER and EMS workers run through a drill practicing how to process an incoming patient experiencing a respiratory emergency at the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center's Emergency Room, on April 10, 2020.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Fire Paramedic personnel prepare to run a drill at the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center's Emergency Room, on April 10, 2020.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

The CDC recommends Americans wear a facial covering when out in public, part of an effort to reduce the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19. Above, shopping for spring blooms at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s Green Things Nursery.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) signs taped onto dorms at the Babcock Dorms. The rooms located at 1717 E Speedway Boulevard may be used to house hospital workers from Banner - University Medical Center if they need to be quarantined due to COVID-19.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Alex Swain, a member of Beloved in the Desert - ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥'s chapter of the Episcopal Service Corps, packs the trunk of his housemate's SUV in the parking lot of Fry's on 2480 N Swan Road after grocery shopping for an elderly man, on April 3, 2020. Swain and his housemates have volunteered to shop for elderly and at risk populations as people quarantine and stay at home during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Julisa Montano, a bus driver with Sunnyside Unified School District, gathers up the last few meals to hand out to students outside of Gallego Primary School, on April 7, 2020. The school district is distributing meals and has wifi available for students to use for school.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

A table is taped off at Fred Enke Golf Course, 8251 E. Irvington Rd., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., on April 5, 2020 due to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). With a rise in the amount of people participating in golf, due to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ City Golf is taking extra measures to keep people safe such as sanitizing golf carts after each use and social distancing.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Rich DelVecchio, a Fred Enke Golf Course employee, sanitizes a golf cart. Course revenues at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s city-owned golf properties are up nearly 28% from the same period last year.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ in photos, coronavirus pandemic

Golfers practice social distancing while on the driving range at Fred Enke Golf Course, 8251 E. Irvington Rd., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., on April 5, 2020. With a rise in the amount of people participating in golf, due to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ City Golf is taking extra measures to keep people safe such as sanitizing golf carts after each use and social distancing.