When the NCAA announced that it would grant spring-sport student-athletes an additional year of eligibility after their seasons were halted by the coronavirus pandemic, the decision was met with near-universal praise — which is saying something, because most NCAA moves are met with near-universal disdain.
Count ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Wildcats baseball coach Jay Johnson among the decision’s most enthusiastic supporters.
“For me, it was pretty simple that it was the right thing to do,†Johnson said Friday. “Hats off to the NCAA, because I know it was a tough decision. I know there’s some ramifications to that decision.â€
“Some†is probably an understatement. The ruling by the Division I Council will have far-reaching consequences. Many of them will be positive, especially for student-athletes who will get to extend their college careers and don’t have lucrative professional opportunities in their given sports. Many are unknown, even with the NCAA having put some basic parameters in place.
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The situation is particularly complex in college baseball, which provides the majority of players in the annual MLB draft. Three days before Monday’s announcement by the NCAA, Major League Baseball and its players association reached an agreement on various issues, including the 2020 draft. It could be reduced from the usual 40 rounds to as few as five.
If that were to happen, more than 1,000 players who usually get drafted wouldn’t be. Whether they’re high school seniors, junior-college prospects or juniors or seniors from four-year schools, they’ll be looking for a place to play.
Personnel management in NCAA baseball already required mental and mathematical gymnastics with only 11.7 scholarships to divide among 27 players on 35-man rosters. With the prospect of fewer players leaving and more arriving than usual next season — and athletic programs bringing in less revenue — the formula will change. The answers will become even trickier to derive.
As Johnson put it, schools across the nation still have “a lot of unpacking†to do. Below we examine the potential implications of the eligibility ruling and the truncated draft through the lens of UA baseball.
New roster rules
Let’s start by digging into some of the details of the NCAA’s decision. Three aspects are particularly noteworthy:
- Financial-aid rules have been altered to allow teams to carry more players on scholarship than usual. Aid does not have to be provided for 2020-21 at the same level as 2019-20, however. So seniors who would have exhausted their eligibility this year could come back next year with reduced scholarships — or none at all.
- Schools can “self-apply†waivers to restore a season of eligibility for spring-sport student-athletes. They also can add a year beyond the usual allotment of five to complete four years of competition. This is especially important for draft-eligible junior baseball players who aren’t sure bets to be picked in a five-round draft. We’ll expand on this later.
- The D1 Council specifically addressed baseball’s unique needs by stating the sport would be allowed to increase its roster limits. Each team can exceed the standard cap of 35 by however many 2020 seniors return in ’21.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ had four seniors on its ’20 roster, all right-handed relievers: Nate Brown, Preston Price, Davis Vainer and Vince Vannelle.
Price and Vannelle had carved out significant roles under first-year pitching coach Nate Yeskie, combining for two wins, two saves and a 1.85 ERA across 13 appearances. Vainer might have been headed in that direction. A graduate transfer from Alabama, Vainer missed the first 14 games because of injury. His UA debut came in what turned out to be the last inning of the season finale; Vainer got the final three outs in a 10-6 victory over Houston on March 8.
If all four seniors returned — with or without scholarship money — the ’21 Wildcats could have a roster of 39 players. In November, Johnson announced a signing class of 12. He said Friday that he expected 8-12 newcomers to join the team, depending on the draft and other factors.
Not knowing that exact figure at this time of year isn’t atypical. A handful of signees inevitably get picked and go pro. That number is likely to be smaller this year with the draft being shorter.
Whatever size roster ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ ends up with, Johnson and his staff will strive to make it work. It’s never been about quantity for him anyway.
“We can take on anything that we choose to take on,†Johnson said. “However many players we have on our team, we’re gonna give them our best.
“My first year in Nevada (2014), we played with 28 players. So 28, 39, to me, that doesn’t make an impact.
“It’s never about the number. It’s just having the right guys. I think there were a lot of the right guys on this year’s team.â€
Johnson said he and his staff haven’t moved on to ’21 roster planning just yet. They’re currently focused on making sure the players remain on track academically and that they’re “healthy mentally and physically,†Johnson said. ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ would have hosted Stanford this weekend had the season not been disrupted.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s Austin Wells (16) tosses his bat as he watches his blast chase home three Wildcat runs against Albany in the second inning of their season opener at Hi Corbett, February 14, 2020 ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz.
Draft decisions redefined
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s top three draft-eligible prospects are catcher Austin Wells, utility player Matthew Dyer and outfielder Donta Williams. Wells, the 2019 Pac-12 Freshman of the Year, is widely projected to be a first-round pick. Dyer likely would be selected in a five-round draft, though that’s not guaranteed. Williams’ fate could depend on whether the draft goes five rounds or 10 rounds.
ranks Dyer as the 122nd-best college prospect and Williams the 127th. The site projects both as sixth-round picks.
Dyer batted .393 as a redshirt sophomore in 2019. He was hitting only .220 in 59 at-bats this year but had an abnormally low BABIP (.217) and had only one fewer home run (three) than he totaled in 168 at-bats a year ago.
“This year was definitely a different year,†said Dyer’s father, Mike. “I think he’s proven himself to the teams. It’s just one of those things.
“If they shorten it to five rounds, those are the only slots that get paid. At that point, it wouldn’t be worth it.â€
The deal between MLB and the MLBPA allows undrafted players to sign with clubs as free agents. But the maximum signing bonus is $20,000. The last pick of the sixth round last year signed for $200,000.
A redshirt junior this season, Dyer would retain two years of eligibility if he elected to return thanks to the NCAA’s ruling. Williams, likewise, would be classified as a junior. Both, therefore, would preserve a degree of negotiating leverage if they came back.
Dyer had opportunities to go pro last year but chose to return and further his development. No one could have foreseen what would unfold in 2020.
“Everything you do is in God’s hands,†Mike Dyer said. “Go your path, and whatever happens, happens. There’s no regrets. This is just a horrible thing going on in the world. Nobody could predict it. We’ve just got to get through it and move on to the next chapter.â€
The length of the draft also could determine what’s next for ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s top signees — and what its roster will look like next season.
Outfielder Chase Davis is ranked 53rd in Baseball America’s latest top 300, so he could be headed to the pros regardless. But five others are ranked between 158th and 287th. A five-round draft would be 161 picks. A 10-round draft would be 311 picks.
The draft currently is scheduled to begin June 10 but could be pushed back to mid-July. There’s ample time for coaches to plot contingencies and for players to contemplate their futures. How it all turns out is anyone’s guess.
“There’s a lot of things going on right now that are significant relative to the health of our society that impact the economy, business (and) our world, college athletics,†Johnson said. “I believe in the mission of college athletics, and I hope we can get back on our feet. I hope that football season is going to be played. I hope we’re back to business as usual at the start of school in August.
“It’s a tough time, and a lot of people have to make a lot of tough decisions.â€
