When we last saw the Pac-12’s banner still standing, only a half-full crowd at Madison Square Garden was on hand, and most of it was rooting for Penn State.
Utah lost 82-66 to the Nittany Lions in the championship game of the NIT on March 29, ending the longest-lasting run the Pac-12 had during an otherwise forgettable postseason.
Only three teams received NCAA tournament bids — ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, ASU and UCLA — and all of them were gone before the second round. Second-place USC went 24-12 overall and wasn’t invited, nor were Utah and Stanford after tying for third place with UCLA.
Then came the offseason. Three Pac-12 players left early for an NBA Draft that did not select them while Stanford’s Reid Travis went from a potential Pac-12 Player of the Year this season … to a grad transfer at Kentucky.
So while the Pac-12’s annual men’s (Thursday) and women’s (Wednesday) Media Days this week in San Francisco promise all the usual hype, with each team parading a head coach and two key players around the conference’s studios, the league still has plenty of difficult questions hovering overhead.
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Among them:
1. Can the Pac-12 attract more NCAA bids?
When ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ went 0-3 in the Battle 4 Atlantis early last season, the entire Pac-12 felt the pain. The Wildcats went on to win the conference, but their nonconference losses never went away in RPI and power rating calculations. The league finished with the No. 6 collective RPI for the second straight season.
“You can’t go to the Bahamas and lose three games,†Utah coach Larry Krystkowiak said, and UA coach Sean Miller agreed.
“When we went to Battle 4 Atlantis, we not only hurt ourselves but we hurt our conference,†Miller said. “Years ago, if we got to Maui or in the Preseason NIT, and you won three or four games on a neutral court, you not only helped yourself but you really helped the conference. All of us are well aware of that.â€
But it’s not just about winning. It’s also about scheduling smart. ASU codified one key to an NCAA bid by scheduling up and succeeding. The Sun Devils beat Kansas State and Xavier in Las Vegas, won at Kansas and rolled into Pac-12 play undefeated.
That the Sun Devils went 8-10 in conference play and finished eighth didn’t matter so much to the NCAA selection committee.
College basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy said the key to the selection process is what a team does in its best five and worst five games.
“They care a little about what’s in between but for the most part they focus on the extremes,†Pomeroy said. “That’s why ASU got in. That covered up for all of their sins in conference play.â€
However, there are some factors that aren’t easy to control, such as the cyclical availability of high-level talent in the West, and the early losses to the NBA Draft.
Over the past two seasons, 15 of the Pac-12’s 20 NBA picks left school before their eligibility was up, and that doesn’t count early departees such as UA’s Rawle Alkins, Allonzo Trier, Chance Comanche and Kobi Simmons, all of whom left early and weren’t taken (plus OSU forward Drew Eubanks, who wasn’t drafted last June).
But this season, the Pac-12 managed to get back several key players from the NBA Draft test pool, such as Washington’s Noah Dickerson, Washington State’s Robert Franks, as well as UCLA’s Jaylen Hands, Kris Wilkes and Cody Riley.
ASU coach Bobby Hurley and his Sun Devils probably need a few more wins to feel secure about an NCAA Tournament bid.
2. Will ‘Pac-12 weekends’ be a thing of the past?
The conference’s unbalanced schedule did not allow USC to host ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ or ASU last season, and a win over either of those teams likely would have put the Trojans in the NCAA field.
That was one of the reasons Pac-12 coaches and administrators began discussing a modified scheduling model, which instead of a fixed rotation of schedule “skips†would aim to ensure marquee and other strategically valuable games would not be missed.
As of now, teams skip a pair of conference road games and a pair of home games every season; this season, for example, UA won’t take the Washington trip and won’t host the Los Angeles schools.
However, adjusting the schedule would likely mean at least partly altering the conference’s traditional two-game weekend sets, where teams typically host two games between Wednesday and Sunday, then travel the following weekend.
During league meetings in Scottsdale last May, Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott said there was “robust discussion†about how and whether changes should be made. Colorado coach Tad Boyle said he was undecided, while Washington’s Mike Hopkins said the league has to get more teams in the NCAA Tournament somehow.
“At the end of the day, you’re trying to change and adapt to our goals as a league,†Hopkins said, which is “to have a highly rated league, to get as many teams in the NCAA Tournament, to get a chance to win the national championship and to get as far as you can. So changes have to be made.â€
The Pac-12 could change its scheduling formula as soon as the 2019-20 season, and deputy commissioner Jamie Zaninovich said there are a bunch of ways it could go.
“We’ve looked at getting away from travel partners. We’ve looked at scheduling more of a rotation. We don’t know where we’re gonna land,†said Zaninovich, formerly the commissioner of the West Coast Conference and a member of the NCAA selection committee.
“We might not do anything. But we’ve got to make sure we do a really good scrub.â€
3. Can Washington keep fooling everyone?
While Oregon is the likely favorite this season, with five-star talents Louis King and Bol Bol joining a strong cast of returning players, Washington returns virtually everyone from a team that shocked the league last season by going 10-8 after a last-place effort in 2016-17.
A big part of the reason was that the Huskies converted from a disinterested man-to-man defensive team in ’16-17 to one that quickly embraced the 2-3 zone new coach Mike Hopkins brought over from Syracuse. Installing the long and athletic Matisse Thybulle at the top of that zone also worked out so well that Thybulle earned the Pac-12’s Defensive Player of the Year award.
Washington went from being the 10th most efficient defense in 2016-17, according to ratings, to the best last season.
And did we mention that everyone’s back this time? Not only that, but Washington has more size up front to improve its mediocre rebounding, with 7-0 freshman Bryan Penn-Johnson and 6-10 freshman Nate Roberts joining 6-11 Kiwi big man Sam Timmons.
“I think the one thing is the top eight guys know our system and offensively guys are understanding what we’re trying to do,†Hopkins said. “We weren’t as big as we’d like to be at certain positions, but we’ve worked hard and defensively we were No. 1 in the conference.â€
The only difference is that this time, everyone will know exactly what’s coming at them when they face the Huskies.
4. Can ASU find sustainability?
Coach Bobby Hurley lost his “Guard U†core of Tra Holder, Shannon Evans and Kodi Justice after last season, but he added size and strength to the backcourt with Cleveland State transfer Rob Edwards and Canadian freshman Luguentz Dort. He also upgraded the frontcourt with four-star freshman Taeshon Cherry, a former USC commit, and San Diego State transfer Zylan Cheatham, among others.
Overall, Hurley may have his most talented ASU roster yet, one that could challenge for one of the Pac-12’s four first-round byes in the conference tournament.
It’s just that last season’s conference slide was enough to keep any future expectations in check.
“The time is now,†Hurley said after ASU’s first practice last month, according to the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Republic. “We made the strides and we got some people excited about what we’re doing, especially with how we started last year. This is when we’ve got to put it all together.â€
5. Will the New York trial hover over San Francisco, too?
When UA coach Miller first faced Pac-12-area media in a small-group setting at last year’s conference media day, he deflected six rapid-fire questions about the federal investigation into college basketball and what he knew about then-assistant coach Book Richardson, who was arrested on federal bribery and fraud charges. Miller referred to a previous statement in which he said he has worked hard toward compliance.
But after more allegations started surfacing last week in the first of three federal trials resulting from the investigation, Miller may face similar questions at this year’s media day, too. So might also USC’s Andy Enfield and Oregon’s Dana Altman.
USC also had an assistant coach, Tony Bland, arrested and eventually fired last season, while the attorney for an Adidas executive claimed at the trial last week that Oregon was willing to pay five-star recruit Brian Bowen an “astronomical amount of money.â€
However, Bowen’s father, Brian Bowen Sr., testified later in the week that he didn’t recall an offer from Oregon, while noting that an agent told him of other offers, including one for $50,000 from ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ via then-associate head coach Joe Pasternack.
Altman told reporters in Eugene last week that “we don’t pay players,†while the UA did not respond to multiple requests for comment after the first week of the trial.
Bowen Sr., who agreed to be a government witness in exchange for immunity, is expected to be cross-examined this week while the trial continues Tuesday through Thursday.
