A series of recent media reports have cast the Pac-12鈥檚 fragile situation in the bleakest terms possible. And yet, each development carries a complexity not captured on social media or by fans anxious about the future of the conference.
We鈥檙e here to steer the discussion back to center 鈥 to the extent that any existential crisis can be addressed in a rational and reasonable manner.
First came reports that the Big Ten鈥檚 mammoth new media rights contract includes an escalator clause that carves out hundreds of millions of dollars in case of additional West Coast expansion.
Then came a report that Oregon representatives have engaged Big Ten officials in discussions to determine whether the Ducks 鈥渁re compatible鈥 with the conference.
Both developments served to fuel the narrative, especially on social media, that the Pac-12鈥檚 so-called Four Corners schools (蜜柚直播, ASU, Colorado and Utah) have just one viable option: To enter the Big 12 as soon as possible.
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The resulting portrait depicts a conference on death鈥檚 door, but the reality is considerably more nuanced.
And nuance doesn鈥檛 exist on Twitter or Facebook, in sports bars or across the public machinery of college football realignment.
But four things can be equally true:
The Big Ten鈥檚 contract can contain a huge escalator clause to account for expansion 鈥
And Oregon representatives can be talking to the Big Ten 鈥
And the Four Corners schools can view the Big 12 as a viable option 鈥
And the Pac-12 can remain intact for the foreseeable future.
From our vantage point, nothing has changed for the Pac-12 in the two weeks since news broke that ESPN would not participate in the Big Ten鈥檚 next media rights contract, which begins next summer.
In theory, that was a positive development for the beleaguered conference: Lacking Big Ten content across its networks, Disney seemingly would be motivated to partner with the Pac-12.
(Even there, nuance exists. Unless a competing media company steps to the negotiating table with a serious bid, ESPN will set its price and refuse to pay a dollar more.)
Let鈥檚 address the topics in reverse order from the list above:
Item I: The Four Corners schools 鈥 including 蜜柚直播 鈥 are eyeing the Big 12
Reaction: Sure, the university presidents would be naive to ignore any lifeboats on the horizon, but that doesn鈥檛 mean the Big 12 is their preference. In our estimation, all four schools want to remain in the reconfigured Pac-12. An exodus would unfold only if they have no reasonable choice.
The Pac-12鈥檚 media valuation isn鈥檛 substantially worse than the Big 12鈥檚 and, in fact, might be better, while the institutional fit (academics, location of alumni bases) clearly falls on the Pac-12鈥檚 side.
A report from Action Network suggested that Oregon representatives have talked with the Big Ten about 鈥渃ompatibility.鈥
Item II: Oregon representatives are talking with the Big Ten about 鈥榗ompatibility,鈥 per the Action Network
Reaction: Of course they are.
Any Pac-12 school that hasn鈥檛 reached out to other conferences is steering directly toward the iceberg.
Does anyone believe Nike founder Phil Knight, the only Oregon representative who truly matters, hasn鈥檛 reached out to key officials in the Big Ten and SEC about options for his school? Of course he has. Knight knows everybody worth knowing in both leagues.
Item III: The Big Ten鈥檚 new media rights contract, worth approximately $7.5 billion over seven years, includes an escalator clause 鈥 in the event of membership expansion 鈥 that pushes the total value to $10 billion
Reaction: This is the critical piece, so let鈥檚 start with some background.
Notre Dame has always been the Big Ten鈥檚 expansion priority.
The Irish have an immense national following and a huge alumni base in Chicago. They are as Big Ten as Ohio State and Michigan, except for their century-old status as an Independent.
But will the Irish agree to the move when their current contract with NBC expires in three years? Our industry contacts are skeptical. Notre Dame鈥檚 value and identity are, to a large extent, rooted in its status as an Independent.
If the media revenue is right and access to the College Football Playoff is acceptable, the school has zero reason to join the Big Ten.
Should the additional $250 million in the Big Ten鈥檚 contract 鈥 or the majority of it 鈥 be viewed as a jackpot set aside for a six-team Western division, with Stanford, Cal, Oregon and Washington joining USC and UCLA?
That could very well be the Big Ten鈥檚 ultimate goal. But a report from the Sports Business Journal 鈥 it hasn鈥檛 received nearly as much attention as the escalator clause or the Action Network nugget 鈥 provides contract details that muddle the financial piece to another round of West Coast expansion.
Per the SBJ鈥檚 John Ourand:
鈥淚f Notre Dame joins the Big Ten within the next seven years, CBS, Fox and NBC know exactly how much extra they will have to pay in rights fees. That specific dollar figure, which is not publicly known, is spelled out in the contracts.
鈥淣o other school is mentioned in these deals by name, and the contracts don鈥檛 assign a dollar figure to any other school that may join the conference, according to several sources. Notre Dame is the only school that has specific language about escalators.
鈥淚f, say, the Big Ten adds two West Coast teams, the networks have agreed to have good-faith conversations with the conference about opening their deals and adjusting their rights fees. But the specific increases are not spelled out in the contract language, I鈥檓 told.鈥
To us, it sure doesn鈥檛 appear the Big Ten鈥檚 network partners have committed $250 million to adding four Pac-12 schools.
In fact, the networks haven鈥檛 committed to paying the Big Ten anything for the West Coast quartet.
Could they? Will they? Perhaps.
But again, the dynamics haven鈥檛 changed an iota since terms of the Big Ten鈥檚 new contract leaked to the media two weeks ago.
The Big Ten probably isn鈥檛 days or weeks away from adding Oregon or anyone else from the West Coast.
The Four Corners schools probably aren鈥檛 days or weeks away from jumping to the Big 12.
The process will take time, likely many weeks and perhaps many months.
And while a rupture could occur 鈥 we aren鈥檛 here to guarantee the Pac-12鈥檚 survival 鈥 the most likely outcome remains just as it was a month ago:
The 10 continuing members sign a new media contract that preserves the conference for the next three, five or seven years.
That doesn鈥檛 seem like much. But given the rate of change in college sports, it鈥檚 an eternity.
