Pac-12 schools would have little to gain financially from jumping to the Big 12, according to a veteran of realignment who鈥檚 watching the chaos unfold from his retirement chair.
鈥淚 see no benefit to somebody from the Pac-12 going to the Big 12,鈥 said former Utah athletic director Chris Hill, who oversaw the Utes鈥 2011 move into the Pac-12.
Hill retired in 2018 after a stellar three-decade career in which he hired Urban Meyer and Kyle Whittingham. He has tracked the realignment situation closely and is aware of speculation that several Pac-12 schools, including the Utes, could jump to the Big 12.
Asked specifically about the Utah administration鈥檚 preference, Hill offered:鈥漈hey all want to stay. They love the schools they鈥檙e associated with and the areas they recruit and play. Utah has a lot of alumni in the Bay Area. There aren鈥檛 alumni in Waco. Those things matter.鈥
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Nor does Hill believe it鈥檚 essential for Utah to partner with rival BYU, which is set to enter the Big 12 next year.
鈥淭hey just need to play each other,鈥 he said. 鈥淒o they need to be in the same league to do that? Maybe, but maybe not.鈥
Hill believes football should be treated as a separate business within college sports and will eventually feature a 48-team upper division. That bifurcation could happen in the next few years 鈥 or not for a decade.
Unless the Big Ten or SEC come calling, the 36 schools remaining in the Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC must recalibrate their strategy and beware of lifeboats that aren鈥檛 as sturdy as they appear.
鈥淭heir market is their market,鈥 Hill said, referring to the media rights value held by any given school. 鈥溍坭种辈モ檚 worth in the Big 12 is the same as it is in the Pac-12. The finances of moving won鈥檛 help anybody.
鈥淲hat difference does it make if you鈥檙e getting $35 million a year in the Pac-12 versus $40 million a year in the Big 12? Either way, it鈥檚 not going to move the dial for you. The only benefit from switching is to destroy the other league.鈥
Hill isn鈥檛 convinced the Pac-12 must expand following the departures of USC and UCLA in 2024. The schools currently in the Big 12 could be difficult to poach because of the league鈥檚 bylaws, which feature a 99-year commitment.
Section 3 (鈥淲ithdrawals and Sanctions鈥) suggests an exit fee equal to two years of conference revenue 鈥 approximately $80 million 鈥 would apply:
鈥淎ny Withdrawing Member shall pay to the Conference a commitment buyout fee (the 鈥淏uyout Amount鈥) in an amount equal to the sum of the amount of distributions that otherwise would be paid to the Member during the final two years of its membership in the Conference.鈥
Would that stipulation apply to the four schools entering the conference next year (Cincinnati, UCF, Houston and BYU)? That depends on the documents they have signed to this point.
鈥淚f the Big 12 schools are off the table, then you could go to the Mountain West,鈥 Hill said. 鈥淏ut I鈥檇 stabilize. I wouldn鈥檛 feel the need to take somebody now. Take a breath.鈥
The Pac-12鈥檚 fate depends largely on the Big Ten鈥檚 expansion plans. Lacking the option to accompany USC and UCLA, the most valuable remaining programs (Washington, Oregon and Stanford) might prefer to remain in a reconfigured conference rather than hopping to the Big 12 for what would be less than 鈥渕ove the dial鈥 revenue.
And nobody would want to sign a long-term contract with the Big 12 given the likelihood of more realignment in the next few years.
鈥淭hey are worried about safety in numbers,鈥 Hill said. 鈥淏ut unless somebody believes the Pac-12 schools are leaving (to the Big Ten), I don鈥檛 see why they would go anywhere.鈥
