ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ added 30,200 new jobs last month.
But the question of what that means in an unemployment rate is a little less certain.
On paper, the state Office of Economic Opportunity puts the seasonally adjusted jobless rate for September at 6.7%. That follows a 5.9% figure for August and 10.7% the month before.
What’s causing these wild swings is not the number of people working. It’s the number of people not working but reportedly looking.
The way the state figures it, another 151,727 people joined the workforce between August and September. That includes both those working — a figure that did not change markedly — and those who said they are looking.
But the month before the workforce figure dropped 151,220.
So what’s going on? More to the point, are these swings real?
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Doug Walls, the agency’s research administrator, says blame COVID-19.
Not the virus itself. But he said that the pandemic has resulted in some issues with the surveys of households that determine the size of the workforce along with other factors.
It starts with what Walls said is “the volatility that’s come from the COVID-19 pandemic.â€
“One thing that we’re hearing from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Department of Labor is that there are challenges that the Local Area Unemployment Statistics are going through and the LAUS program is experiencing associated with the impacts of COVID-19 on the workforce movement,†he said. That, Walls said, is complicated by the fact that these numbers are based on a survey of just 1,400 ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ households.
The hospitality industry has been particularly hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. These cities have a disproportionate number of hospitality workers and have experienced high levels of unemployment.
So some big month-to-month changes in who is employed, who is not and who is looking — all pieces of determining the jobless rate — can play havoc with the statistics.
“It is a challenge to parse out whether those are actual changes in the economy or those are due to the large swings and large changes in the workforce because of COVID,†he said.
So can the numbers now being released for September be counted on as reliable? And was that 5.9% rate for August — the one that led Gov. Doug Ducey to crow about the recovery — accurate?
“Fair points,†Walls conceded. “This is something the BLS is working to address.â€
But making true comparisons month over month may be difficult.
Walls said BLS used some “modified methodology†in coming up with the September figures in an effort to address some of the drastic changes in the numbers.
Still, Walls said he believes the September numbers are accurate enough.
“They’re not making dramatic changes to the methodology or approach,†he said. “The month-to-month comparisons are still justifiable.â€
At least for the time being.
Walls pointed out that there is a “benchmarking†process where the numbers are reexamined at the end of the year, opening the door to retroactive adjustments to the figures now being released. But those revised and presumably more accurate numbers won’t be available until March.
A clearer picture of the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ employment situation may come from a separate survey of employers.
It starts with that addition of 30,200 jobs. But fully a third of those were in public education, people who are not on annual contracts like food service workers and janitors who are returning to schools.
Private sector employment is up 19,400 month-over-month.
But the state is still far from being out of the woods.
Employment by private companies is still 85,500 below where it was the same time a year ago.
There were continued gains in wholesale and retail trade. In fact, Walls says that sector of the economy actually has regained all the jobs lost since February.
All that, however, has been more than offset by losses elsewhere.
Leading that column is the state’s leisure and hospitality industry.
It has shed 56,000 jobs in the past year, with another 24,300 lost in professional and business services.
Photos for May 29: ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during Coronavirus Pandemic
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

The iconic Casa Molina bull and matador statue both sport masks on the first full week of the loosening of COVID19 restrictions, May 23, 2020, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. The bull previously had a mask on the testicles.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Michelle Leon Cordova, right, mother, and her son Sahuarita High School senior Lino Cordova, whom is fighting cancer, wave at staff members from Diamonds Children Center, friends and the Marana Police Department during a car parade, celebrating Lino's graduation, outside of his home on May 13, 2020 in Sahuarita, Ariz. Cordova stood on the sidewalk while the team from Diamond Children Center, friends and the Marana police department gave Cordova a graduation gar parade. Cordova was given a gift basket with his favorite snacks, gift cards as well as other items he enjoys. The car parade, also, celebrated another graduating senior fighting cancer from Empire High School, Noah Nieto. Nieto, also, received a gift basket with snacks, gift cards and other items Lino enjoys.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Michelle Leon Cordova, right, mother, brings celebration balloons to a car after staff members from Diamonds Children Center, friends and the Marana Police Department celebrate Sahuarita High School senior Lino Cordova, whom is fighting cancer, graduation with a car parade outside of his home on May 13, 2020 in Sahuarita, Ariz. Cordova stood on the sidewalk while the team from Diamond Children Center, friends and the Marana police department gave Cordova a graduation gar parade. Cordova was given a gift basket with his favorite snacks, gift cards as well as other items he enjoys. The car parade, also, celebrated another graduating senior fighting cancer from Empire High School, Noah Nieto. Nieto, also, received a gift basket with snacks, gift cards and other items Lino enjoys.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Personnel from ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center line the heliport to watch A-10's from Davis-Monthan Air Force Base's 355th Wing and F-16's from the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Air National Guard's 162nd Wing make a pass over the facility, one leg of an area wide community flyover, May 14, 2020, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Nancy Celix-Campos, right, a respitory therapist at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Medical Center, watches the military flyover with her daughters, Giana, 12, and Jazmyn, 8, from Sentinel Peak on May 14, 2020. Two F-16 Fighting Falcons from ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Air National GuardÕs 162nd Wing and two A-10 Thunderbolt II's from the 355th Wing, assigned to Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, fly over ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ area hospitals to honor healthcare personnel and first responders as they are some of the frontline workers dealing with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) head on. "It's been an exhausting two to three months," says Campos, "it's pretty cool, I like how they're going by each hospital."
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Two F-16 Fighting Falcons from ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Air National Guard’s 162nd Wing and two A-10 Thunderbolt II's from the 355th Wing, assigned to Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, fly over Northwest Medical Center north of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ on May 14, 2020.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

A letter carrier portrait on the Ok Market building, located in the Armory Park neighborhood, is adorned with a face mask on May 18, 2020.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Rosemary Garcia waits for a family member outside of a store at Park Place Mall, 5870 E. Broadway Blvd., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. on May 19, 2020. Malls reopened today under CDC guidelines and Gov. Ducey's new rules for businesses due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Park Place Mall has signs throughout the mall reminding customers to keep a six feet distance as well as hand sanitizer stations near each entrance. About half of the tables in the food court have been removed to allow for social distances as well as less than half of the stores have opened with new guidelines. Of the stores open, only 10 customers are allowed to shop in each store at a time.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Pat Schlote steams clothing before it is put on the sales floor at the Golden Goose Thrift Shop in Catalina, Ariz., on May 21, 2020.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Ada Contreras, teaching assistant, looks through containers while reorganizing toys at Herencia Guadalupana Lab School, 6740 S. in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. on May 21, 2020. As Child care centers begin to re-open when they are ready, Herencia Guadalupana Lab School is reorganizing and cleaning everything in the facility before re-opening on June 2. To allow for social distancing and decrease the amount of items children touch, Herencia Guadalupana Lab School has sheds where items will go as well as placing items in containers organized by category.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Jen Martinez, right, softball coach, teaches Skylar Reilly about hitting during a session at Centerfield Baseball Academy, 5120 S. Julian Dr., in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. on May 21, 2020. After re-opening on Monday, Centerfield Baseball Academy has implemented new policies in response to the Coronavirus Pandemic such as wearing masks, cleaning, signage, hand sanitizer and limiting the amount of people inside the facility.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Karl Bosma, left, and George Cantua, with facilities and maintenance, lay down stickers to mark six-foot separation distance around one of the baggage carousels, part of the efforts at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ International Airport to work within the restrictions of COVID19, May 22, 2020, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

A lone passenger waits for a flight near one of the shuttered restaurants in the B Gates before Memorial Day at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ International Airport on May 22, 2020.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Drew Cooper on the stage in the St. Philip's Plaza courtyard, May 22, 2020, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., where live music is back on the schedule.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Many people visit Tumamoc Hill during the first day of Tumamoc's re-opening in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. on May 25, 2020. After being closed due to the Coronavirus pandemic, Tumamoc Hill re-opened with some modifications. There are hand sanitizer stations throughout the hike to the top as well as arrows, spaced 10-ft apart, lined up and down the hill. Some runners, hikers and walkers are also wearing masks during their hike. "The steps we are taking aim to provide our community with needed exercise, connection to our beautiful desert and a sense of comfort in such a trying time, while balancing the fact that gathering as a community endangers each of us and our loved ones. This is an unprecedented challenge that we are taking extremely seriously," said Benjamin T. Wilder, director of Tumamoc Hill. Visitors are also asked to limit their group to three people and to not touch the gate at the top of the hill- a tradition for some who make it to the top. "This is a time when we need to establish new traditions and adapt in a creative manner that embraces empathy, unity, care and patience," Wilder said.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Pen Macias, artist, works on part 2 of a mural for a client on E. Broadway Rd., between S. Columbus Blvd. and S. Alvernon Way, in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz. on May 25, 2020. Macias, known as The Desert Pen, has been working on her clients mural for the past three months. "It's the one thing I love, I have a passion for and the only thing I could be happy doing," said Macias. The mural represents her client, a single mother of four who works in the health care field. One half of the mural is dedicated to the connection between mothers and their children. The other half is dedicated to the connection between nurses and patients. The client wanted some positivity in the mural to show how nurses give a piece of themselves to their patients hence the puzzle pieces in the nurse and the patients, said Macias.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Christina Cortinas, posing at her home, May 28, 2020, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Ariz., with a photo of her and her mother, Catherine Rodriguez, in San Diego, 1991. Rodriguez is currently in assisted living and fighting COVID19. Cortinas hasn't seen her mother in months, the longest such span in her life.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ gets by during coronavirus pandemic

Ruben Lopez looks through handouts while attending a Eviction Resource Fair with his family outside the Pima County Justice Court.
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