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ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ns hoping for a break this spring from the drought gripping the state will be disappointed, with climatologists calling for minor to exceptional drought conditions, what one calls the state’s “new normal.â€
The released this month by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the largest drought coverage seen in the U.S. since 2013, with as much as 60% of the continental U.S. facing drought conditions.
“This outlook that NOAA is saying, that we’re going to develop or have worsening drought, it’s not surprising, it’s not unexpected,†said Erinanne Saffel, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥â€™s state climatologist.
As the state moves into April, May and June, what Saffel calls “the driest months of the year in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥,†dry conditions will impact roughly 4 million residents living in across the state, according to NOAA.
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It said cities in central ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, including Phoenix, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, Globe and Florence, will experience abnormally dry conditions characterized by dry soil and increased fire risks. The greater threat will be in western and northern ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, where severe or extreme drought conditions are expected to affect farms, forests and wildlife, and stress fire crews.
Despite last year’s being one of the wettest on record, averaging 7.93 inches of rainfall, it was not enough to reverse lasting effects from prior dry seasons in ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ — including the on record in 2020.
“We’re still in that long-term kind of situation where one or two wet seasons is still not enough to come out of this long-term drought,†Saffel said.
ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ has been experiencing drought conditions since the mid-1990s and has been under an emergency drought declaration since 1999. Experts said that it’s important to look beyond short-term climate forecasts when considering the long-term drought.
“We’ve been getting precipitation that isn’t too far off from normal or 100% of average, but the runoff has been significantly less … indicative of very dry soil conditions and also a hotter, drier spring,†said Tom Buschatzke, director of the ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Department of Water Resources.
NOAA’s spring forecast came shortly after the Bureau of Reclamation said the elevation of had fallen below 3,525 feet, the lowest since it was first filled in the ’60s. If the lake falls below 3,490 feet, it will not be able to turn generators in Glen Canyon Dam that produce electricity for 5.8 million customers in Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Nebraska and ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥.
As part of the 2019 Drought Contingency Plan, the Bureau of Reclamation twice took actions to help prop up Lake Powell, releasing water from two upstream reservoirs and temporarily reducing monthly releases from Glen Canyon Dam until April.
The bureau said it would not be taking further action for now “because the spring runoff will resolve the deficit in the short term,†said Wayne Pullan, the director of the Upper Colorado Basin Region, in a prepared statement.
But Buschatzke does not share that optimism.
“We’ve been monitoring the climatic conditions for many years in relation to both what’s occurring inside the state of ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥, but also with the major reservoirs Lake Powell, Lake Mead, and what was happening in the upper basin watershed for†those lakes, he said. “And it has been a downward trend in terms of runoff in the Colorado River.â€
While it does not plan more action now, the bureau projects that Lake Powell will dip again later this year, and it has a Drought Response Operations Plan in the works to help keep water at a level to keep generators functioning, if necessary.
Although the bureau has been able to provide short-term solutions, Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ State University’s Morrison Institute, argues that significantly more must be done to combat the shortages caused by “22 years of drought.â€
“We’ve been doing these incremental agreements to deal with urgent situations,†Porter said. “But we need to get to a point where we have a big long-term agreement on how much water we can expect, and how much water each and every user can expect.â€
These agreements will require cooperation between all of the basin states, and several iterations of plans and projections in order to achieve a “reasonable level of success,†Buschatzke said.
“Mother Nature keeps teaching us that things can get worse as you look forward,†he said. “So we need to continue to add to our plans and create more robust plans to deal with the broader range that is before us and the broader range of uncertainty about what our future will hold.â€
Photos: Glen Canyon Dam dedicated in 1966 after years of construction
Glen Canyon Dam

Glen Canyon Bridge and Glen Canyon Dam during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

Interior Secretary Stewart Udall, right, with Ladybird Johnson during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966. The Glen Canyon Bridge is in the background.
Glen Canyon Dam

First Lady Ladybird Johnson with ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ Gov. Sam Goddard during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

The transformer complex during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

The control room during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

Deep underneath Glen Canyon Dam during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

A giant steel turbine shaft spinning during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

First Lady Ladybird Johnson, center, during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

First Lady Ladybird Johnson during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

Wahweap Marina on Lake Powell during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

Boaters on the new Lake Powell during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

The turbine hall during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966. The first electricity was generated on September 4, 1964, with the power sent into the regional electric grid through a pair of long-distance transmission lines as far as Phoenix, ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥ and Farmington, New Mexico.[
Glen Canyon Dam

The eight penstocks that provide water for generation of electricity are revealed on the back of Glen Canyon Dam during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

A man catches some sun during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

Boaters on Lake Powell during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

Boaters on Lake Powell during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

A guest photographs ÃÛèÖÖ±²¥'s newest lake during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

Spectators watch the dignitaries from a distance during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

A boat ride on Lake Powell during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

Wahweap Marina on Lake Powell during the official dedication of Glen Canyon Dam near Page, Ariz. on Sept. 22, 1966.
Glen Canyon Dam

Photograph of a bend in Glen Canyon of the Colorado River, Grand Canyon, ca.1898. The towering nearly-vertical rocky canyon walls loom over the placid river. The canyon rim is visible in the distance. A rocky embankment forms the shore on one side of the river. Two men row small boats on the river.
Glen Canyon Dam

Glen Canyon damsite from the air in November 1957, prior to construction of the Glen Canyon Bridge
Glen Canyon Dam

Aerial view of Glen Canyon Dam during construction - 1962
Glen Canyon Dam

Construction of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963.
Glen Canyon Dam

Lake Powell filling underway, 1965
Glen Canyon Dam, bridge, construction

Steelworkers sit on the steel span for Glen Canyon bridge under construction high above the Colorado River in the late 1950s.
Glen Canyon Dam, bridge, construction

The bridge span emerges from the anchorage in the wall of Glen Canyon just west of the dam site under construction, late 1950s.
Glen Canyon Dam, bridge, construction

Heavy equipment moving rock at Glen Canyon Dam site, late 1950s.
Glen Canyon Dam, bridge, construction

Dozens of survey marks dot the wall of Glen Canyon at the site of the dam in the late 1950s.
Glen Canyon

Bend in Glen Canyon of the Colorado River, Grand Canyon, ca.1898. Photographer: George Wharton James
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