蜜柚直播 high school senior Angeles says she tries to be a role model for her two younger siblings, as well as her cousins who still live in southern Mexico. The 17-year-old stays busy with school, her part-time job in Marana鈥檚 outlet mall and playing bass in a band with friends. She鈥檚 been accepted at Northern 蜜柚直播 University in Flagstaff, where she hopes to study business.
But as the eldest, U.S.-born daughter of two undocumented parents, Angeles said that sense of responsibility has been weighing on her since Donald Trump won the presidential election, following repeated campaign promises to 鈥渓aunch the largest deportation effort in American history.鈥
鈥淚t鈥檚 often in my head, especially at work,鈥 she said, her voice breaking. 鈥淚鈥檓 just scared to come back one day and not see my parents at my house.鈥
Instead of feeling excitement about NAU, Angeles says she can鈥檛 help but think about the worst-case scenario. If her parents were to be deported, she鈥檚 prepared to delay or leave college and start working full-time to support her younger sister until she finishes high school.
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Her parents act calm when discussing how their family would deal with such a situation, but Angeles says she knows they鈥檙e stressed.
鈥淚 see it by looking at their eyes,鈥 said Angeles, who asked the 蜜柚直播 to only use her first name. 鈥淲e have so much here. We have community. If they do end up getting deported, they would be losing so much.鈥
Between the twin threats of Trump鈥檚 promised mass deportations, and the passage of Proposition 314 in 蜜柚直播 鈥 which allows local police to arrest people for immigration violations 鈥 many in Southern 蜜柚直播鈥檚 immigrant community are experiencing fear and anxiety reminiscent of the days of SB1070. That鈥檚 蜜柚直播鈥檚 notorious 鈥渟how-me-your-papers鈥 law, passed in 2010, which has been largely nullified by the courts.
鈥淭he scary part is both the state and federal attacks combined,鈥 said Carolina Silva, director of immigrant-youth-led Scholarships A-Z, which advocates for education equity for undocumented students.
SB1070 offers lessons for organizers today, although, with Trump in the presidency, it鈥檚 harder to predict what the reality will look like, Silva said.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a sense of, we鈥檝e been on a similar train before but, as we know, Trump is a really chaotic individual. He has really anti-immigration people in his cabinet, so we can鈥檛 take much safety or comfort鈥 in past experience, she said.
Amid the uncertainty, many are finding solidarity in 蜜柚直播 advocacy groups, which are mobilizing to inform the immigrant community about their rights and making plans to defend those vulnerable to deportation.
鈥淲e鈥檙e going to create a plan of accompaniment and ultimately, a plan of resistance,鈥 said immigrant-rights activist Isabel Garc铆a, an attorney with Coalici贸n de Derechos Humanos 鈥 Human Rights Coalition 鈥 and co-founder of 蜜柚直播鈥檚 鈥淪top the Hate鈥 collective. 鈥淲e have to protect our brothers and sisters in the community.鈥
Advocates and experts say mass deportations won鈥檛 begin suddenly; there鈥檚 time to make emergency plans, organize important documents and contact lawyers.
Any effort to ramp up deportations will face considerable logistical, financial, diplomatic and legal challenges, including the limits of Immigration and Customs Enforcement鈥檚 capacity to detain people, the willingness of other countries to accept deportations, and the already massive backlog in U.S. immigration courts, experts say.
Most immigrants who are already settled in the U.S., rather than recent arrivals at the border, can鈥檛 be deported without a hearing before an immigration judge.
鈥淎ny kind of significant ramp up in enforcement will take time. Obtaining new detention capacity will take months or potentially years,鈥 as will hiring more ICE agents, said Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, senior fellow at immigrant-rights research group American Immigration Council. 鈥淒espite Stephen Miller and others talking in terms of a 鈥榮hock-and-awe鈥 campaign, I鈥檓 deeply skeptical the U.S. government has the capacity to do something like that.鈥
Angeles鈥 mother, Monica, who asked that the Star only use her first name, said she wishes she could shield her children from the stress they鈥檙e experiencing, but Trump鈥檚 re-election has forced them to have hard conversations.
Monica, a housekeeper and immigrant-rights advocate, has a wide smile and is quick to laugh. But her eyes fill with tears when talking about leaving 蜜柚直播, which now feels more like home than the one she left in Oaxaca, Mexico, nearly 20 years ago.
Speaking to the Star in Spanish on a recent afternoon, a thick braid of hair draped over her shoulder, Monica recalled the years when she kept the shades drawn and always had the suitcases packed in case they had to leave. She鈥檚 warned her children to be careful of police officers who might act more aggressively, emboldened by Proposition 314, as she said happened under SB1070.
鈥淣ow we have to prepare, as a community,鈥 she said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a sad and painful time.鈥
Community mobilizing
As the sun set on Thursday evening, nearly 50 activists and organizers gathered at Coalici贸n de Derechos Humanos鈥 community center in South 蜜柚直播.
Bouncing between English and Spanish, community members, legal advocates and social-justice activists pulled chairs into circle and hammered out details of an upcoming 鈥淜now Your Rights鈥 clinic for undocumented immigrants and allies.
The network of human-rights groups, led by Coalici贸n de Derechos Humanos, is forming committees 鈥 including education, political outreach, emergency response and mental health 鈥 and scripting role-playing skits on how to respond if detained and questioned about one鈥檚 immigration status.
鈥淲e need volunteers to be actors,鈥 organizer Jennifer Cervantes announced at the meeting, joking, 鈥淚t is a dark comedy.鈥
They鈥檙e also seeking allies, U.S. citizen volunteers willing to show up quickly when someone is detained, or to accompany people to required check-ins with ICE, where they could be vulnerable to arrest.
Organizers, some of whom are undocumented themselves, worry they could be targeted, too, said immigration attorney Alba Jaramillo of the Human Rights Coalition, and co-executive director of the Immigration Law and Justice Network.
鈥淲e鈥檙e going to have to figure out a way to do this that is safe,鈥 she said. 鈥淎fter Jan. 20, it鈥檚 going to have to become an underground movement.鈥
In times of fear, it鈥檚 crucial to empower people with knowledge and tools to defend themselves, said Manuel Ruiz, an activist who is also undocumented.
鈥淚 think my family, and all immigrant families, will be greatly impacted by the insecurity of leaving your house and not knowing what will happen,鈥 he said in Spanish. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a chaos and a stress that are affecting us greatly.鈥
He advises maintaining an 鈥渆mergency kit鈥 with important documents 鈥 such as passports, asylum-petition documentation or birth certificates 鈥 in a secure place. Undocumented parents should sign power-of-attorney or guardianship papers to ensure someone they trust could care for their children, in case of a sudden detainment.
If questioned during a traffic stop, assert the 5th Amendment right to remain silent, Silva said.
鈥淒on鈥檛 say where you were born, don鈥檛 respond to their questions. Say, 鈥業鈥檓 not allowed to say anything without an attorney present,鈥欌 she said.
Local law enforcement
Trump鈥檚 team has 鈥渢wo camps鈥 with competing ideas of how mass deportations will be carried out, Reichlin-Melnick said.
On one side is Stephen Miller, Trump鈥檚 named deputy chief of staff of policy, who describes detention centers constructed by military, deployment of National Guard troops in immigrant-friendly cities and a sweeping effort to round up undocumented people, without the prioritization of those with criminal records that is the policy under the Biden administration.
Tom Homan, the former ICE director who will be Trump鈥檚 鈥渂order czar,鈥 envisions a 鈥渕ore restrained operation鈥 akin to current ICE operations targeting criminals, but with more resources, scaled-up detention capacity and 鈥渃ollateral arrests鈥 of people near ICE鈥檚 intended targets, Reichlin-Melnick said.
Local officials said it鈥檚 not yet clear what mass deportations will actually look like, and what kind of pressure local authorities will face to cooperate.
Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos, a Democrat who faces a recount in his narrow Nov. 5 election victory, told the Star that sheriff鈥檚 deputies here will not participate in immigration enforcement.
鈥淚 will say this: If Border Patrol called the Sheriff鈥檚 Office and said, 鈥橶e need you to help us check on businesses and make sure everybody there has immigration status that鈥檚 correct,鈥 we would never do that,鈥 he said.
Nanos said sheriff鈥檚 deputies cannot hold people for immigration violations without a court-ordered warrant transferring them to ICE custody.
If ICE needs more detention space, 鈥渨e鈥檙e not putting them in my jail,鈥 he said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 the federal government鈥檚 problem.鈥
Most of Proposition 314鈥檚 provisions will only go into effect if a similar law in Texas survives a court challenge. If enacted, it allows local law enforcement to arrest people for immigration violations, but it鈥檚 not a mandate, Nanos said.
鈥淚 do not plan to put deputies on the border. I need deputies here on my streets,鈥 he said. 鈥淢y deputies have a job to do, and it has nothing to do with immigration.鈥濃
Facing hard limits on the number of deportations that can happen in four years, the Trump administration will use fear to push people to leave on their own, Reichlin-Melnick said.
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 important for people to realize the Trump administration is going to weaponize fear here. They鈥檒l weaponize public relations around raids,鈥 he said in a recent interview on . 鈥淲e鈥檙e going to see a lot of cases in the first six months where ICE carries out a pretty standard operation and rather than a small press release coming out from the ICE Public Affairs office, we鈥檒l see the White House blast out media images of raids. ... The idea there is to send people into the shadows and get them to self-deport.鈥
Economic, social impacts
Deporting 1 million people annually would cost an average of $88 billion per year, including costs of arrests, detentions, legal processing and removals, according to an October from the American Immigration Council.
The U.S. economy also stands to lose the billions in revenue that undocumented immigrants contribute through sales, income and property taxes.
In 2022, undocumented workers contributed $96.7 billion in federal, state and local taxes, according to a July from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. (People without Social Security numbers can pay taxes using Individual Tax Identification Numbers, issued by the Internal Revenue Service.)
That includes $25.7 billion for Social Security and $6.4 billion for Medicare, programs for which undocumented workers are not eligible themselves.
And in 蜜柚直播, undocumented immigrants paid $706 million in state and local taxes in 2022.
The 蜜柚直播 Hispanic Chamber of Commerce is trying to educate 蜜柚直播鈥檚 U.S. legislators on what mass deportations would mean for the economy, particularly in industries like agriculture, construction and hospitality, said Robert Elias, chamber CEO.
Work shortages in the farming sector could increase reliance on automation and reduce jobs in the long-term, as well as increase food prices, he said.
鈥溍坭种辈モ檚 economy heavily relies on undocumented immigrant labor,鈥 Elias said. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 believe anybody who says they care about the economy can be for this type of (deportation) policy, regardless of whether they鈥檙e Democrat, Republican or Independent.鈥
Housing advocates say construction workforce shortages could exacerbate housing costs by slowing new homebuilding.
鈥淲e are monitoring the situation closely,鈥 David Godlewski, president and CEO of the Southern 蜜柚直播 Home Builders Association, said in an email. 鈥淭he home building industry recognizes the importance of a robust and reliable workforce which is integral in meeting the current and future housing needs of our region. It鈥檚 a balancing act that requires investing in the workforce training, increasing the number of visas and exploring comprehensive immigration reform.鈥
U.S. citizens affected, too
Deportations have a ripple effect on the finances of entire households, and the wider community, said Geoff Boyce, research affiliate at the University of 蜜柚直播鈥檚 Binational Migration Institute.
In a 2020 based on interviews with 125 蜜柚直播 households, Boyce calculated families incurred an average loss of $24,000 per arrest following a deportation, including lost income and legal fees. Two-thirds of family members in the survey were U.S. citizens, part of mixed-status families, he said.
鈥淲hat we find is the majority of people impacted by deportations are in fact U.S. citizens,鈥 Boyce said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a reflection of how undocumented people are not a population that鈥檚 isolated and lives apart from the rest of the community. They鈥檙e part of our families, our neighborhoods and our lives.鈥
Using a sports metaphor, Boyce said mass deportation can be understood as an 鈥渙wn goal,鈥 that is, 鈥渙ur own government sabotaging the health and well-being of the people it is supposed to serve and represent.鈥
Workplace raids don鈥檛 usually net large numbers of deportations, relative to the massive amount of resources needed to carry them out, Reichlin-Melnick said. But they could be an effective P.R. strategy for Trump, he said.
Workplace raids are experienced locally as disasters, said Liz Oglesby, associate professor in the UA鈥檚 Center for Latin American Studies. Between 2007 and 2013 Oglesby interviewed residents of three U.S. cities hit by large-scale raids, carried out like military operations, under Republican President George W. Bush.
In the small town of Postville, Iowa, the children of Guatemalan and Mexican immigrants were the only reason some local schools had been able to stay open, Oglesby said. The town lost one-third of its population when its foreign-born residents fled, following a raid led by 800 ICE agents that picked up nearly 400 undocumented workers at a meat-packing plant.
In Postville, 鈥渢he response in the community became bipartisan, in the sense that across the political spectrum people stood up and said, 鈥楴o, we don鈥檛 want this kind of disaster in our community,鈥欌 Oglesby said. 鈥淚t tore apart the social fabric of the community.鈥
Impact on children
About 11 million undocumented residents live in the U.S., and about 4.4 million U.S.-born children live with an undocumented parent, according to the .
A 2017 estimated the cost of foster care for U.S.-born children of deported parents to be $118 billion, assuming one-third of affected children remained in the U.S. instead of leaving with their parent.
In 蜜柚直播, about 8.6% of U.S.-born children live with a foreign-born parent, and deportation threats cause tremendous stress, said Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, a Democrat.
In 蜜柚直播 under SB1070, the wave of fear that spread through the community led to high rates of absenteeism at schools, as parents kept their children home. Ultimately, the 蜜柚直播 Unified School District lost about 15,000 enrolled students as families fled 蜜柚直播, said Grijalva, a former TUSD Governing Board member.
Most Pima County schools now have emergency protocols for if a student鈥檚 parent is detained, mostly involving crisis-response teams, Grijalva said.
鈥淚t鈥檚 mostly trauma services, the same sort of services you would provide if a parent was in a car accident,鈥 she said.
TUSD did not respond to the Star鈥檚 request for details on those protocols, but spokeswoman Karla Escamilla said in an email, 鈥淔ederal law prohibits public schools from requiring documentation on immigration status for enrollment.鈥
鈥淭here have to be safe spaces for our kids,鈥 Grijalva said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a protection every public school should provide. ... Both Pima County and the City of 蜜柚直播 have taken strong positions on this (under SB1070) and I anticipate we鈥檒l renew our efforts this upcoming year.鈥
DACA recipients also worried
This year鈥檚 election night was painful for Jimena, 28, and her husband Jos茅, 36, whose parents brought him to the U.S. from Veracruz, Mexico, when he was 14. The couple asked that the Star only use their first names because they worry Jos茅, like many others, is vulnerable to losing his protected status under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or DACA.
The Obama-era program protects from deportation 535,000 undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children. DACA recipients can get work permits, and must renew their status every two years.
The Supreme Court blocked Trump鈥檚 first-term efforts to rescind DACA in 2020. The program鈥檚 future is now up to an appeals court, after the Biden Administration challenged a 2023 Texas federal judge鈥檚 decision ruling the program illegal.
Congress hasn鈥檛 acted to provide a pathway to citizenship for DACA recipients despite polls showing strong support for it.
Jimena and Jos茅 said they stayed up late on election night, planning for if they have to leave the home they own in Casa Grande.
At 13 weeks pregnant, Jimena says it鈥檚 been hard to get excited about becoming parents. Trump鈥檚 election feels like a personal attack, said Jimena, a naturalized U.S. citizen from El Salvador.
鈥淚t feels like half of the country hates us. You can鈥檛 feel safe,鈥 she said. 鈥淪ometimes I just feel numb. It鈥檚 not that we forget we鈥檙e expecting a baby, but it just feels like this time where we should be focusing on our family, we have to focus on all the negativity around us.鈥
When Jimena looks at her husband, who runs an auto-glass tinting business, 鈥淚 see the definition of an American dreamer,鈥 she said. 鈥淚 see him as coming to this country and making something of himself. He has a business, he employs people, he pays his taxes, and he gets nothing in return but uncertainty. That鈥檚 the thing that breaks my heart.鈥
Deportation causes trauma and grief, said Silva of Scholarships A-Z, whose family moved from Peru when she and her brother were children.
When she was 19, Silva鈥檚 brother was detained at a traffic stop and later deported. It was 2011, and then-President Barack Obama, a Democrat, was ramping up the deportation program that would give him the moniker 鈥渄eporter-in-chief鈥 among critics.
It was also one year before Obama created DACA, which Silva鈥檚 brother would have qualified for.
鈥淚 wouldn鈥檛 wish deportation on anyone,鈥 she said. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know that anyone is safer because my brother isn鈥檛 in this country anymore.鈥
Now, once again, 鈥渋t feels like our community is literally being hunted,鈥 Silva said. 鈥淭hat is not okay. That is not what a first-world country should do.鈥
Seek community
DACA recipient Luna Lara, 29, is a housing advocate in 蜜柚直播. She recalls 鈥渃onstantly looking over my shoulder鈥 while growing up undocumented in Texas after her family moved from Nuevo Leon, Mexico. She and her brother 鈥済rew up on home remedies鈥 because their parents were too scared to take them to the hospital if they were sick, she said.
鈥淚t was drilled into us that we had to be good, we had to have good grades, we had to make sure we never got in trouble or in a fight, anything that would arouse suspicions or get anybody鈥檚 attention,鈥 she said.
The hyper-vigilance has never gone away, Lara said.
鈥淓ven to this day, once a year my mom will have a conversation with me, 鈥楬ey, if something happens, here鈥檚 where all the paperwork is, here鈥檚 your next step,鈥欌 she said.
For those feeling isolated and anxious, seeking support in faith groups or advocacy groups is key, Silva said.
鈥淚 want our community to know they鈥檙e not alone, to know they have rights, they are worthy and everything they鈥檙e feeling is valid,鈥 she said. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 have to go through the next four years feeling isolated.鈥
Dora Rodriguez, migrant-rights activist and founder of Salvavision in 蜜柚直播, noted that Democrats and Republicans alike have targeted immigrants.
Obama deported more people in each of his two terms than Republican Trump did, and currently under the Biden Administration鈥檚 June asylum restrictions, 1,200 newly arrived migrants each week are being quickly deported back to Nogales, Sonora, she said.
At 19, Rodriguez nearly died crossing the Sonoran Desert after she fled war-torn El Salvador in 1980.
Rodriguez doesn鈥檛 believe Trump can follow through on his deportation threats 鈥 鈥淢exico didn鈥檛 build the wall like he told us,鈥 she said 鈥 but she鈥檚 concerned about how local law enforcement will react to Proposition 314 if it goes into effect.
As activists, 鈥淲e鈥檙e not scared. We鈥檙e more outraged,鈥 she said. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 have space to be afraid. I don鈥檛 have space to give up. ... When I talk to people who are already saying, 鈥業鈥檓 going to take my husband to California because I am terrified of that new law in 蜜柚直播,鈥 how can you answer that? You just have to be there for that person and say, 鈥楴o, you鈥檙e not alone. We鈥檙e gonna fight for you.鈥欌
Lara said the prospect of mass deportations makes her feel angry, but she doesn鈥檛 want to say she鈥檚 afraid.
鈥淚 hate to use the word fear, because I鈥檝e lived in fear all my life,鈥 she said.
She鈥檚 still holding on to hope that what she was taught to love about the U.S., as a place of equality and freedom, might still be true.
鈥淚鈥檓 blessed every day to be waking up in a great country that I still believe in,鈥 Lara said. 鈥淚 just need it to love me back.鈥